As Western support continues to pour into Ukraine, the battle for Donbas has intensified, marking a new, grueling chapter in the war. Backed by the U.S. and Europe, Kyiv is striving to hold the line against Moscow’s mounting offensive aimed at dismantling Ukraine’s eastern defense belt.
According to the U.S.-based Institute for the Study of War (ISW), Russia appears committed to a long-term campaign, signaling that the Kremlin may be prepared to prolong the war far beyond the ceasefire deadline proposed by President Donald Trump. This is not merely a tactical maneuver, but rather a multi-year military operation designed to wear down Ukraine’s resistance.
Ukraine’s fortified eastern defense network—anchored by the cities of Siversk, Lyman, Slovyansk, and Kostyantynivka—has been described as the backbone of the Donbas front. In order to penetrate this line, Russian forces must first overcome a series of geographic barriers, including the Siverskyi Donets and Donbas rivers.
Even if Russian troops breach these natural defenses, capturing a strategic city like Slovyansk would remain an arduous task. Analysts believe this city, along with others in the belt, plays a pivotal role in Ukraine’s overall defensive strategy.
The southern tip of the fortress—Kostyantynivka—has now become Russia’s primary target. Recent reports suggest that Moscow is expanding its assault southwestward in a bid to encircle the city. A pro-Russian military blogger noted that the battle for nearby Chasiv Yar took 14 months, and Kostyantynivka is three times its size—suggesting that a direct assault could lead to a prolonged and resource-intensive campaign.
However, questions remain about Russia’s ability to sustain such an extensive offensive across multiple fronts. After more than three and a half years of continuous fighting, the strain on both the Russian military and economy is showing. While ISW previously warned that Moscow may struggle to maintain multi-pronged attacks over years, recent progress indicates that the Kremlin remains confident in its endurance.
Alongside the fierce ground battle, the air war is escalating with the deployment of new Russian technology. Business Insider reports that Russia is now using a high-speed drone dubbed Geran-3, modeled after Iran’s Shahed-238. This jet-powered UAV can reach speeds of up to 800 km/h, making it exceptionally difficult for Ukraine’s mobile fire units or domestically-produced interceptor drones to counter.
According to Vadym Kushnikov, an aviation expert and CEO of the defense news outlet Militarnyi, the Geran-3 behaves much like a cruise missile, allowing it to slip past air defenses with alarming ease. Ukraine’s Air Force reported that eight jet-powered UAVs were launched by Russia in late July, marking one of the first official confirmations of such weapons being deployed.
In light of this, the timeliness of Western aid becomes even more crucial. ISW stresses the importance of advanced air defense systems and the delivery of F-16 fighter jets to help Ukraine adapt to these new challenges.
A promising development came recently when the U.S. Department of Defense announced a billion-dollar contract to supply AMRAAM (Advanced Medium-Range Air-to-Air Missiles) to Ukraine. The package includes missile production, technical equipment, and ongoing support. These new capabilities are expected to significantly boost Ukraine’s air defense, enhancing its ability to respond to Russia’s growing aerial threats.
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