Global oil prices dropped sharply on October 15, 2025, due to oversupply from OPEC+ and U.S. producers. In Vietnam, domestic prices remained stable thanks to flexible regulation. Is this a buying opportunity or the start of a longer downturn?
The global energy market opened mid-October 2025 on a bearish note as both Brent and WTI crude extended their declines.
According to Reuters, Brent crude fell nearly 3% to $61.5 per barrel, while WTI dropped to $58.7, marking the lowest level since May.
The fall followed a report from the International Energy Agency (IEA) warning that global oil supply could exceed demand by more than 3 million barrels per day in the second half of 2025. The report highlighted a surge in production from OPEC+ countries and non-OPEC producers such as the United States, Brazil, and Canada, while global demand growth remains sluggish amid a slowing economy.
According to the Financial Times, this marks the largest oversupply in five years, raising fears that prices could continue to slide if major producers do not cut output.
Adding to the pressure, OPEC+ recently announced an additional output increase of 500,000 barrels per day starting in October, aiming to defend market share. Yet this decision has flooded the market further, amplifying downward price pressure.
Analysts now warn that if the situation continues, Brent crude could fall toward $58–60 per barrel in November, signaling the sharpest correction since the 2020 pandemic shock.
Three main factors are currently driving the global oil downturn:
Severe oversupply: U.S. crude output has hit a record 13.5 million barrels per day, while Saudi Arabia and Russia maintain near-maximum capacity.
Weak demand from China and Europe: Industrial activity and transport fuel consumption remain subdued after prolonged monetary tightening, with global oil demand down 2.3% year-on-year.
Energy transition pressures: Western economies are accelerating their shift toward renewable energy, shrinking demand for traditional fossil fuels, especially in transportation and power generation.
Still, some analysts point to seasonal demand growth during the upcoming winter months, which could help stabilize prices around the $60 mark in the near term.
Despite international price turbulence, Vietnam’s domestic fuel market has remained relatively stable, supported by proactive government policies.
According to the Ministry of Industry and Trade, Vietnam imported nearly 5 million tons of crude oil in the first half of 2025 — a 30% increase year-over-year. Total import value reached $3.4 billion, indicating that Vietnam is taking advantage of the low-price environment to build up national reserves and ensure energy security.
In a significant development, Binh Son Refining and Petrochemical (BSR) recently imported its first shipment of WTI crude from the United States, marking a strategic move to diversify supply sources. Traditionally, Vietnam relied heavily on Middle Eastern crude, but the country is now expanding imports from the U.S., Brunei, and Libya to reduce dependency risks.
Local distributors noted that while international crude prices have dropped, retail fuel prices in Vietnam have not fallen sharply due to environmental taxes, logistics costs, and exchange rate effects.
Cheaper imports: Lower global prices reduce input costs for refineries and domestic fuel suppliers.
Strategic reserve expansion: A favorable time to increase national oil storage at lower prices.
Export potential: Lower crude costs can improve refinery margins and competitiveness for refined product exports.
Exchange rate volatility: A stronger U.S. dollar increases import costs despite cheaper crude.
Energy inflation risk: A sudden price rebound could push up transportation and production costs.
Regional competition: Other Asian economies are also ramping up imports, which may strain supply chains and logistics.
Global financial institutions currently present three scenarios for oil prices heading into late 2025:
Base case: Brent stabilizes around $60–65 per barrel, supported by seasonal demand during winter.
Bearish case: Continued overproduction by OPEC+ could push prices down to $55 per barrel, hitting producer economies hard.
Bullish case: Any geopolitical shock (e.g., Middle East tension or shipping disruptions) or surprise production cuts could lift Brent back to $70–72 per barrel.
In Vietnam, analysts expect retail fuel prices to stay largely stable through Q4 2025, barring sharp fluctuations in global crude benchmarks.
According to Nguyen Hoang Nam, an independent energy analyst based in Singapore:
“The current decline reflects a temporary oversupply rather than structural weakness. For medium-term investors, the $60-per-barrel range presents an attractive entry point. As demand rebounds in 2026, prices could return to $75–80 per barrel.”
Vietnamese experts also suggest that companies should adopt forward contracts or hedging strategies to mitigate price volatility risks and use this period to increase fuel reserves at lower costs.
The global oil market on October 15, 2025, faces one of its sharpest corrections in recent years amid a perfect storm of oversupply and weak demand. However, this downturn also presents a strategic window of opportunity — especially for import-dependent countries like Vietnam, which can strengthen its energy reserves and secure long-term stability.
If OPEC+ decides to tighten output or if geopolitical risks resurface, oil prices could quickly rebound, marking the start of a new cycle in 2026.
1. Why did global oil prices drop sharply in October 2025?
→ Oversupply from OPEC+, the U.S., and Brazil coincided with weaker global demand, creating a significant market imbalance.
2. Could oil prices fall even further?
→ Possibly, but not dramatically. Most analysts see $55 per barrel as a floor, as many producers would face unprofitable extraction costs below that level.
3. How does this affect Vietnam?
→ The impact is largely positive. Lower global prices reduce import costs, though volatility could challenge inventory and exchange rate management.
4. Should investors buy oil now?
→ Short-term caution is advised, but the current price range could be an attractive entry point for those with a 6–12 month outlook.
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