The year 2024 witnessed sharp divergences across global commodity markets. While agricultural products and precious metals posted stellar performances, the energy and industrial metals sectors underwhelmed investors. Among 20 major commodities tracked globally, coffee emerged as the standout performer of the year.
Arabica coffee futures surged an astounding 70% compared to last year, making it the top-performing commodity in 2024. The price rally was fueled primarily by extreme weather in two of the world’s largest coffee-producing countries.
Brazil suffered its worst drought in 70 years, while Vietnam endured a mix of drought and heavy rains. These adverse weather events significantly disrupted global supply. Data from Vietnam’s General Department of Customs showed coffee exports in the first half of the year dropped 11.4% to 893,820 tons—raising concerns about supply tightness in 2025.
At the other end of the spectrum, lithium hydroxide was the worst-performing commodity of the year. Prices on the COMEX fell by 42.3% year-over-year, driven by a global surplus as production capacity surged while demand from the electric vehicle (EV) sector began to decelerate.
Gold reaffirmed its role as a safe-haven asset in 2024, consistently reaching new record highs. The yellow metal gained nearly 30% over the past year and set more than 40 new records, with prices briefly topping $2,800 per ounce.
According to Kar Yong Ang, a senior analyst at Octa Broker, three primary factors fueled gold’s rally: (1) heightened geopolitical tensions, (2) increased investor interest as global monetary policies turned less hawkish, and (3) aggressive central bank buying amid growing de-dollarization efforts. Silver also posted an impressive 28.6% gain year-on-year.
Surprisingly, crude oil prices trended lower throughout 2024, even as geopolitical risks escalated. The decline was largely attributed to rising output from non-OPEC countries, especially the United States, and concerns over weakening demand from China—the world’s largest oil importer.
Looking ahead to 2025, analysts express optimism for a commodity rebound—particularly in base and precious metals. Ajay Kedia, Director at Kedia Commodities, anticipates strong upside, noting that “2025 will be a great year” driven by anticipated interest rate cuts from central banks. Lower rates are expected to support prices of copper, zinc, and aluminum.
Gold’s outlook remains especially bullish. Amit Goel, co-founder of PACE 360, projects a strong rally for gold in the second half of 2025. “The macro environment is becoming increasingly favorable,” he said, citing three key drivers: a likely decline in the U.S. dollar index in Q1/2025, U.S. bond yields nearing a peak, and the Japanese yen approaching historical lows.
Despite the optimism, market observers caution that several geopolitical and macroeconomic risks could disrupt global commodity cycles in 2025. Escalating conflicts in Ukraine and the Middle East, as well as a potential return of Donald Trump to the U.S. political stage, are among the key uncertainties that could shape commodity demand and pricing trends globally.
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