The global energy market continues to experience volatility without clear momentum. Crude oil prices are struggling to find a firm upward trend amid escalating geopolitical tensions and protectionist trade policies. Meanwhile, domestic fuel prices in Vietnam are expected to move in opposite directions—gasoline may see a slight dip, while diesel and other fuels are likely to continue rising.
On January 22, global oil benchmarks extended their losses as investors reassessed the implications of proposed trade tariffs under the newly inaugurated U.S. President Donald Trump. Brent crude fell by $0.29 (0.4%) to settle at $79 per barrel, while West Texas Intermediate (WTI) dropped $0.39 (0.5%) to $75.44 per barrel.
This marks the first time since September 2024 that Brent has declined for five consecutive sessions. Similarly, WTI has registered four straight days of losses, not seen since November 2024. Both benchmarks closed at their lowest levels since January 9.
Energy consulting firm Ritterbusch and Associates noted that while sanctions under President Trump remain vague, the prospect of sweeping trade tariffs on imports from Canada and Mexico represents the most immediate uncertainty for oil traders.
President Trump announced that his administration is considering a 10% tariff on Chinese goods starting February 1. This coincides with previously signaled 25% tariffs on imports from Mexico and Canada. He also hinted at potential tariffs on European goods and threatened further economic sanctions on Russia if no resolution is reached in the ongoing Ukraine conflict.
According to analysts at ING, market attention is gradually shifting from existing U.S. sanctions on Russia to potential new trade barriers under Trump’s administration—heightening concerns about future energy demand.
In response to looming U.S. tariffs, European leaders have begun coordinating a unified stance. French President Emmanuel Macron and German Chancellor Olaf Scholz met in Paris to demonstrate solidarity and strategize a coherent reaction to U.S. trade threats.
On the supply front, President Trump also suggested halting U.S. crude oil imports from Venezuela—a member of OPEC already subject to American sanctions. According to the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA), the U.S. imported approximately 200,000 barrels per day (bpd) of Venezuelan oil during the first 10 months of 2024, up from the 2023 average of 100,000 bpd. A potential embargo could cause a short-term supply disruption.
Besides political uncertainties, fundamental inventory data from the U.S. has also influenced market sentiment. According to the American Petroleum Institute (API), crude oil inventories rose by 1 million barrels for the week ending January 17. Gasoline and distillate stockpiles also increased—by 3.2 million barrels and 1.9 million barrels, respectively—although at a slower pace than the previous week.
These figures reinforce the perception that supply remains ample, further limiting any potential price recovery in the short term.
As of January 23, the retail prices of petroleum products in Vietnam are as follows:
E5 RON 92 Gasoline: Max 20,731 VND/liter
RON 95-III Gasoline: Max 21,220 VND/liter
Diesel: Max 19,782 VND/liter
Kerosene: Max 19,706 VND/liter
Fuel Oil (Mazut): Max 17,181 VND/kg
The Ministry of Finance and the Ministry of Industry and Trade are set to review and adjust retail fuel prices later today. Given the slight drop in international oil prices despite a four-week uptrend, domestic prices are expected to be adjusted with a divergent pattern.
Market forecasts suggest that gasoline prices could decline slightly by 50–200 VND/liter, ending a streak of three consecutive increases. In contrast, diesel and other oil products may continue their upward trajectory, potentially rising by 500–700 VND/liter or per kilogram, due to higher reference prices in the Singapore fuel market—used as a key benchmark in Vietnam’s pricing formula.
In the most recent price review on January 11, the following increases were implemented:
E5 RON 92: +319 VND/liter
RON 95-III: +201 VND/liter
Diesel: +539 VND/liter
Kerosene: +462 VND/liter
Fuel Oil: +999 VND/kg
These adjustments reflect the government’s efforts to balance global oil price movements with domestic economic stability. The Petroleum Price Stabilization Fund (Quỹ Bình ổn giá xăng dầu) continues to play a key role in cushioning consumers from excessive price volatility.
However, global uncertainties—especially trade tensions between the U.S. and key partners—could create fresh shocks for oil markets. Should these tensions escalate, both global and domestic prices may face additional pressure in the coming months.
While the global market awaits clarity on the Trump administration’s tariff policies, Vietnam's domestic fuel pricing mechanism has demonstrated a degree of flexibility and resilience. The pricing formula closely tracks global benchmarks while ensuring a fair balance between state objectives, consumer affordability, and enterprise sustainability.
Given that both Brent and WTI have not regained consistent bullish momentum, price movements in the near term are likely to be range-bound. In this environment, Vietnamese consumers may see stable or slightly reduced gasoline prices, while diesel and fuel oil could edge higher due to supply-demand dynamics.
From a policy perspective, vigilance is essential. Ongoing geopolitical developments, particularly those involving the White House, will need to be monitored closely. Flexibility in price management, prudent use of the stabilization fund, and transparent communication with stakeholders will remain critical tools to navigate this uncertain landscape—ensuring that Vietnam’s macroeconomic stability and inflation control remain on track.
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