.png){kind=logo}
Tiếng Việt
English
Goldman Sachs has raised its oil price outlook as global energy markets face growing risks from supply disruptions in the Middle East. The bank warned that ongoing tensions affecting shipping through the Strait of Hormuz could trigger one of the largest oil supply shocks in modern history.
Analysts say that if the disruption continues, global oil prices may remain elevated while markets demand a larger geopolitical risk premium.
In its latest research note, Goldman Sachs revised upward its oil price projections for the coming years, reflecting heightened geopolitical risks.
The bank now expects Brent crude to average $71 per barrel in the fourth quarter of 2026, up from its previous forecast of $66 per barrel. Meanwhile, West Texas Intermediate (WTI) is projected to average $67 per barrel over the same period.
The revision is based on a new assumption that disruptions in oil shipments through the Strait of Hormuz will last longer and be more severe than previously expected.
According to Daan Struyven, Goldman Sachs’ head of global oil research, the bank now models a scenario in which oil flows through the strait fall to just 10% of normal levels for 21 days, compared with the previous assumption of 10 days. This would then be followed by a gradual recovery over the next 30 days.
The updated outlook reflects growing concern among major financial institutions about the potential severity of the current energy market disruption.
Goldman Sachs estimates that disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz could affect approximately 16.2 million barrels per day of oil exports from the Persian Gulf.
The bank described the potential impact as the largest oil supply shock in history, underscoring the strategic importance of the waterway.
The Strait of Hormuz is one of the world’s most critical energy transit routes, handling roughly one-fifth of global oil supply transported by sea each day.
Any prolonged disruption to this route could quickly lead to severe supply shortages in global energy markets.
Some industry analysts note that ongoing tensions in the region have already led to reduced production and logistical challenges for several Gulf oil exporters, forcing them to consider alternative shipping routes or temporary output cuts.
Goldman Sachs believes that uncertainty surrounding the duration of the disruption means oil prices are likely to trend higher in the near term.
According to the bank, markets will demand a significant geopolitical risk premium until there is greater confidence that oil shipments through the Strait of Hormuz will resume normal levels.
Oil prices have already surged in recent weeks as traders react to potential supply shortages.
At the time of writing, Brent crude is trading above $96 per barrel, while WTI is hovering around $91.50 per barrel.
The sharp rise reflects investor concerns that geopolitical tensions could evolve into a broader energy supply crisis.
Goldman Sachs also outlined several potential price scenarios depending on the duration of the disruption.
In a more severe case where the Strait of Hormuz remains heavily disrupted for 60 days, the bank estimates that Brent crude could reach $93 per barrel, while WTI could climb to around $89 per barrel.
Some analysts believe prices could rise even further if energy infrastructure in the region becomes a direct target or if supply routes remain constrained.
Historically, major oil supply shocks have triggered sharp price spikes before stabilizing once supply conditions improve or global demand adjusts.
To mitigate the impact of supply disruptions, Goldman Sachs suggests that governments could intervene by releasing oil from strategic reserves.
The bank estimates that a coordinated global response — including the release of approximately 254 million barrels from strategic petroleum reserves (SPR) along with additional supply from Russian stockpiles — could significantly ease the pressure on global inventories.
Such measures could potentially reduce the inventory impact by nearly 50%, helping to stabilize energy markets in the short term.
Additionally, major oil-producing countries may attempt to increase output or reroute shipments through alternative export corridors to reduce reliance on the Strait of Hormuz.
Despite the potential for policy intervention, Goldman Sachs warns that risks to oil prices remain tilted to the upside.
If geopolitical tensions ease quickly and military operations end sooner than expected, the current risk premium embedded in oil prices could dissipate rapidly.
However, if disruptions intensify or extend over a longer period, global energy markets could face a more severe supply crisis.
Higher energy prices would also likely feed into global inflation, complicating monetary policy decisions for central banks around the world.
Recent developments suggest that global oil markets are entering one of their most volatile periods since the energy crisis of 2022.
Supply disruptions in the Middle East, combined with rising geopolitical risks, are forcing investors to reassess the outlook for the global energy market.
In the short term, oil prices are expected to remain highly volatile until markets gain clearer signals about the stability of shipping routes through the Strait of Hormuz.
If the disruption proves temporary, prices could gradually stabilize. But if the crisis persists, the world may be entering a new cycle of elevated energy prices — with significant implications for the global economy.
