The strategic partnership between the United States and India, once expected to serve as a key counterbalance to China’s growing influence in the Indo-Pacific, is now facing unprecedented strain. During President Donald Trump’s second term, tensions over trade, Russian oil imports, and geopolitical differences have put the relationship under pressure and tested mutual trust.
At the heart of the tension is Trump’s “America First” policy, aimed at reducing trade deficits and bringing manufacturing back to the U.S. The situation escalated when Washington imposed an additional 25% tariff on Indian goods as a “penalty” for New Delhi’s continued imports of Russian crude oil.
This move placed India among the countries facing some of the highest tariffs globally. New Delhi pushed back, noting that Washington itself had once encouraged India to buy Russian oil to stabilize supply chains.
According to Sourabh Gupta of the Institute for China–America Studies, Trump’s priorities are clear: trade comes first. While bilateral trade surpassed $190 billion last year, the U.S. still ran a $45 billion deficit with India — a key source of frustration for the White House.
India has long-standing ties with Russia and Iran, and as a founding member of BRICS alongside Moscow and Beijing, it remains caught in the crossfire of Trump’s criticism of the bloc as “anti-American.” Analysts argue that Washington is leveraging these ties as justification for pressuring New Delhi on trade.
At the same time, Trump’s remarks about mediating the India–Pakistan conflict raised further doubts in New Delhi. Experts caution that Washington’s hardline approach could inadvertently push India closer to China, even though the India–China relationship remains fraught.
Despite these frictions, scholars note that the structural foundation of the U.S.–India partnership in the Indo-Pacific remains solid. Professor Harsh V Pant of King’s College London believes the long-term direction will not change, though short-term instability is inevitable.
Ali Wyne of the International Crisis Group adds that Trump’s tactics may weaken America’s global leverage, compelling India to strengthen its multilateral engagements.
Praveen Donthi, Senior Analyst at the International Crisis Group, concludes: “Over the past two decades, both sides have deepened their ties and will continue to do so despite setbacks and mistrust. Washington and New Delhi are learning to manage each other in a new strategic context.”
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