This week brings key earnings from Nvidia and Walmart, plus the long-awaited U.S. jobs report — all of which could reshape market sentiment.
The final full week of November is shaping up to be a pivotal moment for financial markets, as investors await a trio of crucial developments: Nvidia and Walmart earnings, and the long-delayed U.S. jobs report. Together, these data points will help define how the year closes out — and whether optimism around AI, consumer strength, and rate cuts still holds.
After a volatile few weeks marked by tech-led declines and political uncertainty, markets are hoping for clarity. With the U.S. government shutdown finally over, attention is shifting back to fundamentals — earnings growth, employment data, and the Federal Reserve’s next move.
Nvidia (NASDAQ: NVDA) is set to report earnings after the close on Wednesday — and expectations couldn’t be higher.
Once the undisputed leader of the AI boom, Nvidia’s stock has more than doubled since early 2025, driven by relentless demand for chips powering data centers and generative AI. However, as valuations stretch and competitors like AMD and Intel expand their own AI lines, investors are watching to see whether Nvidia can sustain its growth narrative.
The company’s performance will also serve as a barometer for the broader “AI trade” that has defined markets this year. Any sign of slowing demand or weaker guidance could spark renewed volatility in the Nasdaq, which has already suffered a series of sharp swings this month.
According to analysts at FactSet, Nvidia’s earnings per share are expected to rise 52% year-over-year, while total revenue could approach $38 billion, up from $24.3 billion last year. Still, even with such growth, the bar remains high — and a miss could quickly test investors’ confidence in AI stocks.
On Thursday morning, Walmart (NYSE: WMT) will release its quarterly results, providing a critical read on the U.S. consumer — the engine of two-thirds of the U.S. economy.
With inflation still sticky and household debt at record levels, Walmart’s commentary on spending trends will be watched closely by economists and Fed officials alike. Investors will also focus on how its e-commerce and grocery businesses are performing amid rising competition from Amazon and discount retailers.
Recent data suggests that consumer spending remains stable but uneven. Credit card balances hit $1.1 trillion in Q3, according to the Federal Reserve, while delinquency rates have started to rise modestly. If Walmart signals softer demand heading into the holiday season, it could hint at a broader cooling in the economy.
After nearly six weeks of delay due to the record-breaking U.S. government shutdown, the September employment report is finally scheduled for release on Thursday.
This long-overdue update will give investors the first official look at the labor market since late summer — and could heavily influence the Federal Reserve’s December meeting.
Economists expect the report to show nonfarm payroll gains of around 180,000, with unemployment holding near 4.3%. However, the White House has warned that some data for October may be incomplete or unavailable, meaning this report could still leave uncertainty about the true strength of the labor market.
A stronger-than-expected jobs report could reignite debate over whether the Fed should pause or continue cutting rates. Futures markets now assign just a 49% probability of a December rate cut, down from 95% a month ago, according to the CME FedWatch tool.
Despite last week’s modest rebound, investors remain on edge. The Nasdaq Composite ended the week down 0.4%, while the S&P 500 held roughly flat and the Dow Jones Industrial Average posted a small 0.3% gain.
The relief rally following the government’s reopening was tempered by uncertainty over tech valuations, earnings expectations, and interest rate policy.
Crypto markets also experienced turbulence. Bitcoin fell below $95,000, erasing nearly all of its year-to-date gains, as risk appetite waned and investors trimmed speculative positions.
Keith Lerner, chief investment officer at Truist Wealth, noted that short-term pullbacks are “a necessary admission price” for long-term gains, adding that while volatility feels uncomfortable, fundamentals — especially corporate earnings — remain solid.
More than 90% of S&P 500 companies have reported Q3 results, with earnings up 13.1% year-over-year, marking the fourth straight quarter of double-digit growth.
Beyond Nvidia and Walmart, this week’s calendar includes key updates from Home Depot, Target, Lowe’s, Amer Sports, Gap, and Baidu, among others.
Data from S&P Global’s manufacturing PMI and the University of Michigan’s consumer sentiment index will also shape market sentiment heading into December.
Analysts expect sentiment to remain cautious but stable, with traders watching whether inflation data and global trade tensions (especially around China and Europe) could disrupt the end-of-year rally.
The overarching narrative: Markets are trying to find balance between hope for a “soft landing” and fear of an overdue correction.
As Lerner summarized:
“Sentiment is resetting quickly, which should eventually set the stage for stocks to climb the proverbial wall of worry — driven by real earnings strength.”
1. Why is Nvidia’s earnings report so important this week?
Nvidia’s results are a key indicator of the AI sector’s growth trajectory. Its performance affects not only semiconductor stocks but also broader market confidence in tech-driven expansion.
2. What does Walmart’s report tell us about the economy?
Walmart’s earnings reflect U.S. consumer health, which is vital since household spending drives nearly 70% of the economy. Slowing sales may signal broader weakness.
3. Why was the September jobs report delayed?
The report was postponed due to the U.S. government shutdown from October 1 to November 14 — the longest in U.S. history — which halted key data collection.
4. Could this week’s data influence the Fed’s December decision?
Yes. A strong jobs report or resilient earnings could reduce the likelihood of a rate cut in December. Conversely, weak data might push the Fed toward more easing.
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