Oil prices climbed nearly 1% on November 10 as investors grew optimistic that the U.S. government shutdown could soon end, boosting demand prospects in the world’s largest oil consumer and improving overall market sentiment after two weeks of declines.
Oil prices rebounded strongly in early Asian trading on November 10, after two consecutive weeks of losses, as optimism grew that the prolonged U.S. government shutdown may soon be resolved.
As of 8:23 a.m. (Vietnam time):
Brent crude futures rose 47 cents, or 0.74%, to $64.10 a barrel,
U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) gained 50 cents (0.84%), to $60.25 a barrel.
The gains reflected renewed optimism across the energy market, with traders betting that a resolution in Washington would help revive U.S. economic activity — and consequently, lift global oil demand toward the end of the year.
In Washington, momentum toward reopening the federal government appears to be building.
The U.S. Senate on November 9 moved closer to a vote on a bipartisan budget bill that would end the 40-day shutdown and allow federal operations to resume.
If passed, roughly 800,000 federal employees would return to work, and critical programs such as food aid, air traffic control, and public services would be restored. Analysts say this would provide a significant lift to consumer confidence and household spending.
Tony Sycamore, market analyst at IG Bank, said:
“A reopening of the U.S. government would restore spending, public confidence, and risk appetite. If that happens, WTI could quickly move back toward $62 a barrel in the short term.”
He added that a functioning government would not only support domestic fuel consumption but also stabilize global supply chains, many of which have been disrupted during the shutdown.
Despite the current recovery, the global oil market remains under pressure from oversupply risks and uneven demand growth.
Last week, both Brent and WTI fell about 2%, marking a second straight weekly decline amid worries that production may once again outpace consumption.
The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) and its allies — collectively known as OPEC+ — recently agreed to a modest output increase in December 2025, while pausing additional hikes through the first quarter of 2026.
The group said it wanted to “monitor market stability” before deciding on further changes, signaling caution after months of price volatility.
In the U.S., crude inventories are climbing, a sign that domestic demand remains subdued.
According to data from the Energy Information Administration (EIA), U.S. crude stockpiles have risen by more than 5 million barrels in the first half of November.
Across Asia, the same pattern is emerging: oil stored on tankers has doubled in recent weeks, reflecting sluggish consumption as Western sanctions on Russian oil continue to reshape trade flows.
With Western sanctions tightening, India and China — two of Russia’s largest oil customers — have been forced to diversify their supply sources.
Indian refiners are increasingly turning to the Middle East and Latin America, while Chinese independent refiners, known as “teapots,” are struggling with a lack of fresh import quotas, forcing them to cut refinery runs.
Analysts at S&P Global Commodity Insights note that this shift is redrawing the global oil map.
Countries such as Saudi Arabia, Brazil, and Venezuela have seized the opportunity to capture Russia’s lost market share, while Russia is redirecting cargoes toward Africa and Central Asia.
However, the result has been higher transportation costs and lower refining margins, especially in Asia — a region that had benefited from cheap Russian barrels over the past two years.
The new logistical reality has increased volatility and made pricing less predictable, further complicating the market outlook for early 2026.
In the short term, oil prices are likely to remain supported by expectations of a U.S. government reopening and potential interest rate cuts from the Federal Reserve should the economy continue to lose momentum.
Lower borrowing costs could stimulate economic activity and boost energy demand, particularly in transportation and heavy industry.
Still, analysts caution that if real demand fails to pick up, oil could stall around the $60–65 range, especially as OPEC+ remains cautious about increasing supply too quickly.
Phil Flynn, senior market strategist at Price Futures Group, commented:
“The oil market is caught between optimism about a U.S. recovery and fear of oversupply. The $64 mark for Brent looks like a delicate balancing point — if Washington doesn’t resolve its fiscal issues soon, prices could slip again.”
This week’s rebound in oil prices appears driven more by political optimism than by fundamental demand recovery.
A reopened U.S. government could certainly lift market sentiment and improve short-term consumption, but the global oil outlook still hinges on deeper factors — from OPEC+ output decisions to the pace of industrial recovery in major economies.
In an environment where macroeconomic uncertainty and geopolitical tensions persist, $60 a barrel remains both a support and a ceiling — a level where investors feel safe, but not yet confident enough to bet on a new rally.
1. Why did oil prices rise on November 10?
Markets reacted positively to news that the U.S. government may soon reopen, which would support energy consumption and improve investor sentiment.
2. How would a U.S. government reopening affect oil demand?
Resumed federal operations would restore spending and boost consumer confidence, leading to higher transportation and industrial fuel demand.
3. What is OPEC+’s production plan?
OPEC+ will slightly increase output in December 2025 but pause further hikes in early 2026, opting for a cautious approach to avoid oversupply.
4. How high could oil prices go in the short term?
If the U.S. government reopens and the Fed eases monetary policy, WTI could rise toward $62 a barrel, while Brent may reach $65–66 a barrel before stabilizing.
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