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Oil Records Sharpest Weekly Drop Since Late June Amid Tariff Concerns and Economic Outlook

Oil Prices Steady Ahead of Putin–Trump Meeting

Oil prices were little changed on Friday, August 8, as markets awaited the anticipated meeting between Russian President Vladimir Putin and U.S. President Donald Trump in the coming days.

At the close:

Brent crude rose USD 0.16 (0.2%) to USD 66.59 per barrel.

WTI crude was nearly flat at USD 63.88 per barrel.

For the week, Brent fell 4.4% and WTI dropped 5.1% — marking the steepest weekly decline since late June 2025.

Hopes for a Diplomatic Breakthrough on Ukraine

According to Bloomberg, WTI crude fell more than 1% after reports suggested Washington and Moscow were moving toward a deal to end the war in Ukraine, potentially cementing Russia’s control over territories it currently occupies.

Sources say Russian and U.S. officials are working on a territorial agreement to be announced at a summit expected early next week. Such a deal has fueled hopes for a diplomatic resolution, which could pave the way for easing sanctions on Russia.

Trade Tensions and Their Impact on Oil Demand

The potential summit comes amid rising trade tensions between the U.S. and nations purchasing Russian oil.

This week, Trump warned of higher tariffs on India if it continues to buy Russian crude, and also signaled that China — Russia’s largest oil customer — could face similar duties to those imposed on Indian imports.

Analysts at ANZ noted that the U.S. tariff hikes on a wide range of trading partners, which took effect on August 7, have raised concerns over economic activity and crude oil demand.

Rising Oil Supply from OPEC+ and the U.S.

On August 3, OPEC+ agreed to boost production by 547,000 barrels per day in September. This marks the latest in a series of accelerated output increases aimed at regaining market share and adding supply.

In the U.S., the number of active oil rigs — a key indicator of future supply — increased by one to a total of 411 rigs this week.

Monetary Policy Signals and Oil Demand Outlook

On August 7, Trump announced his intention to nominate Stephen Miran, Chairman of the U.S. Council of Economic Advisers, as the next Federal Reserve Chair. The move has fueled expectations for a more dovish monetary policy going forward.

Lower interest rates can reduce borrowing costs, stimulate economic growth, and ultimately boost demand for oil.

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