On the morning of August 18, the State Bank of Vietnam kept the central exchange rate for the U.S. dollar unchanged at 25,249 VND/USD. Meanwhile, the U.S. Dollar Index (DXY), which measures the greenback against six major currencies, stood at 97.84 points.
Last week, the DXY slipped about 0.4% against the currency basket, reflecting shifting market expectations over U.S. monetary policy. Most economists surveyed by Reuters expect the Federal Reserve (Fed) to cut interest rates by 25 basis points in September — the first cut of 2025 — with the possibility of another reduction before year-end.
The move is seen as a response to economic headwinds, as inflation pressures resurface due to tariffs under President Donald Trump’s administration, while weaker hiring data points to a cooling labor market.
Nevertheless, divisions remain within the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC). Some members favor holding rates steady, while political pressure on the Fed has intensified. President Trump has repeatedly criticized Fed Chair Jerome Powell for being too cautious in easing policy.
August is typically not a month for major policy shifts. Investors are closely watching upcoming inflation and labor data, as well as Powell’s speech at the annual Jackson Hole conference — his last major address before his term ends in May next year.
According to surveys, 61% of economists expect the Fed to lower rates to 4.00%–4.25% at its September 17 meeting, while 42% forecast no change. Futures markets, however, are pricing in near-certainty of a September cut, with high odds of at least two additional moves before the end of 2025.
State Bank of Vietnam: central rate 25,249 VND/USD; reference rate at the SBV’s transaction office 24,037 – 26,461 VND/USD.
Vietcombank: 26,060 – 26,450 VND/USD.
VietinBank: 25,905 – 26,445 VND/USD.
BIDV: 26,091 – 26,451 VND/USD.
SBV transaction office: 27,947 – 30,888 VND/EUR.
Vietcombank: 29,900 – 31,477 VND/EUR.
VietinBank: 29,836 – 31,546 VND/EUR.
BIDV: 30,231 – 31,472 VND/EUR.
SBV transaction office: 163 – 180 VND/JPY.
Vietcombank: 172.58 – 183.54 VND/JPY.
VietinBank: 174.48 – 184.18 VND/JPY.
BIDV: 175.42 – 183.13 VND/JPY.
Analysts forecast the U.S. dollar will remain under downward pressure this week as markets increasingly bet on a Fed rate cut in September. However, the currency’s trajectory remains uncertain, depending on upcoming U.S. economic data and future Fed guidance.
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