The U.S. dollar continued to weaken during the week of June 9–13, 2025, despite a brief rebound driven by geopolitical tensions in the Middle East. Market sentiment was largely shaped by softer-than-expected U.S. inflation data, reinforcing expectations that the Federal Reserve may soon begin a rate-cutting cycle.
On June 13, the U.S. Dollar Index (DXY), which tracks the greenback against a basket of six major currencies, closed at 98.14 — a slight gain of 0.22 points from the previous session but down 1.06 points from a week earlier. Notably, on June 12, the DXY briefly dropped to 97.92, marking its lowest level in more than three and a half years.
The dollar’s short-lived rebound came after Israel launched an attack on Iran, sparking a temporary flight to safe-haven assets like the greenback. However, the geopolitical impact was quickly overshadowed by U.S. inflation data released on June 11. The May Consumer Price Index (CPI) showed a slower pace of increase compared to April, signaling cooling inflationary pressure and fueling speculation that the Fed may pivot to rate cuts sooner than expected.
This dovish outlook triggered a sharp drop in the dollar during the June 12 session and may continue to pressure the currency in the near term.
In Vietnam, the central reference exchange rate announced by the State Bank of Vietnam on June 13 stood at VND 24,990/USD — down 2 VND from the previous week.
With a ±5% trading band, commercial banks are allowed to trade the USD/VND within a range of VND 23,741 to VND 26,240.
The exchange rate published by the State Reserve Management Department also saw slight decreases: VND 23,777 (buy) and VND 26,173 (sell), down 16 and 18 VND respectively compared to last week.
At Vietcombank, the exchange rate on June 13 was listed at VND 25,833 – 26,223 (buy – sell), a marginal increase of 3 VND in both directions.
Meanwhile, in the unofficial (black) market, the USD rose by 55 VND on both sides, trading around VND 26,280 – 26,380 per dollar.
The U.S. dollar’s trajectory will likely hinge on upcoming monetary policy decisions by the Federal Reserve. If the Fed does begin lowering interest rates in the second half of 2025, as many traders anticipate, the greenback may face continued downward pressure.
However, geopolitical risks — particularly in the Middle East and Asia-Pacific — could still provide intermittent support for the dollar if global tensions intensify.
Investors are advised to closely monitor key macroeconomic indicators and Fed policy announcements in the coming weeks for clearer signals about the dollar's medium-term outlook.
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