Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman pledges $1 trillion in U.S. investments and discusses a potential F-35 purchase. Experts warn the deal remains uncertain and faces major implementation hurdles.
Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman’s visit to Washington quickly became a global spotlight as President Donald Trump announced a series of massive agreements. From Riyadh’s pledge to raise its U.S. investment to $1 trillion, to discussions about acquiring the F-35 stealth fighter, everything was presented as a historic leap in bilateral relations.
However, behind the impressive figures and bold statements, many questions remain unanswered. Will these deals truly materialize? Are they long-term strategic commitments, or politically symbolic announcements?
This article breaks down the complex geopolitical and economic picture surrounding the “$1 trillion” promise and the potential F-35 sale.
The White House declared that Saudi Arabia is ready to increase its U.S. investments from $600 billion promised earlier to a staggering $1 trillion. The statement was framed as evidence of the “deep trust” in the U.S. economy under President Trump.
But one key issue stands out: there is no timeline, roadmap, or sector-specific breakdown.
This raises skepticism among economists because:
$1 trillion is roughly equal to Saudi Arabia’s entire GDP in 2023 (about $1.07 trillion).
No one can confirm that Riyadh can deploy such an amount quickly or sustainably.
Large, non-binding pledges are common in diplomatic announcements — and many never materialize.
Economist Paul Donovan noted that such promises have “become standard in global deals — even when there is no enforcement mechanism.” He emphasized: “Given the scale relative to GDP, this commitment is unlikely to be realized in the short term.”
In reality, the $1 trillion pledge is more of a political statement than a concrete economic plan at this stage.
While the investment pledge draws economic attention, the potential acquisition of 48 F-35 fighters is the centerpiece of military discussions.
The F-35 is considered the most advanced stealth aircraft the U.S. has ever produced, and Israel is currently the only Middle Eastern nation allowed to operate it.
As a result, the possibility of selling F-35s to Saudi Arabia has ignited intense debate.
Strong Israeli opposition
Israel fears that allowing Saudi Arabia to acquire F-35s will undermine its U.S.-guaranteed “Qualitative Military Edge.”
The U.S. Congress can block the sale
Congress has historically blocked arms deals to Saudi Arabia due to human rights concerns and the Yemen conflict.
Saudi Arabia’s ties with China
Washington is concerned that Riyadh’s expanding cooperation with Beijing could expose sensitive technology.
Regional geopolitical conditions
The U.S. previously suggested that Saudi Arabia would need to normalize relations with Israel under the Abraham Accords framework before receiving F-35s.
Despite the controversy, President Trump maintained that the U.S. would proceed with the sale, assuring that both Israel and Saudi Arabia were “great allies.” However, presidential statements cannot bypass the extensive legal and military approval process involving Congress and the Pentagon.
Professor Paul Musgrave commented:
“Announcing a deal is one thing. Seeing F-35s taking off from a Saudi runway is another. The gap between the two is filled with unresolved technical and legal hurdles.”
In short, the political optics are strong — but the operational reality is uncertain.
This is Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman’s first U.S. trip since the 2018 killing of journalist Jamal Khashoggi.
U.S. intelligence agencies previously concluded that MBS “approved” the operation leading to Khashoggi’s death. Yet:
Riyadh denies wrongdoing
MBS continues to consolidate power
The U.S. still views Saudi Arabia as a critical strategic partner
Though the Khashoggi case remains a major stain on Saudi Arabia’s human rights record, Washington clearly prioritizes security and economic interests in welcoming the crown prince with full diplomatic honors.
Vast financial resources
Leadership in global oil markets
Strategic influence in the Middle East
Counterbalancing China’s regional presence
Advanced defense technologies (like the F-35)
Civilian nuclear cooperation and energy innovation
AI and next-generation infrastructure
Security guarantees and military support
This is a partnership built on strategic interests, not unwavering trust.
Here’s what can be realistically assessed:
The $1 trillion investment pledge requires long-term evaluation and may remain aspirational.
The F-35 sale faces legal, geopolitical, and diplomatic hurdles.
Both sides want stronger ties, but their interests and conditions do not always align.
The Israel-Palestine conflict continues to complicate all major defense initiatives in the region.
In other words: The deal is grand in scope, but the road to actual implementation is long and uncertain.
Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman’s visit to Washington lays the groundwork for a new phase in U.S.–Saudi relations. The $1 trillion investment pledge and the potential F-35 acquisition are headline-grabbing announcements that reflect shared strategic ambitions.
But turning these promises into reality will not be easy.
Financially, $1 trillion is too large to execute quickly.
Militarily, the F-35 program involves sensitive technology and strict political oversight.
Geopolitically, unresolved issues — from Israel-Palestine to human rights and U.S.–China competition — remain significant obstacles.
Ultimately, the current U.S.–Saudi dynamic resembles a bold strategic canvas with powerful strokes, but many key lines and details are still missing before the full picture can come to life.
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