The high-stakes meeting between US President Donald Trump and Russian President Vladimir Putin in Alaska has sparked unease in Ukraine and across Europe. Yet in Beijing, the summit is being closely—and positively—watched. For China, Alaska is more than a discussion on Ukraine; it is a strategic test to gauge how President Trump bargains with other great powers, and a lesson that could shape Beijing’s approach to future US-China confrontations.
Ahead of the summit, China’s Foreign Ministry welcomed continued dialogue between Washington and Moscow, urging both sides to pursue a political settlement in Ukraine. The statement followed a call between President Xi Jinping and Putin, underscoring Beijing’s preference for diplomacy while signaling its own long-term strategic calculations.
Analysts note that Alaska comes at a particularly sensitive time in US-China relations, with the two sides having just extended a 90-day window for trade negotiations. China is also preparing for a potential Trump–Xi summit in October, where thorny issues such as trade and Taiwan are expected to top the agenda.
According to Craig Singleton of the Foundation for Defense of Democracies, Beijing is carefully studying Trump’s negotiating style. “China sees Alaska as confirmation of Trump’s willingness to treat great powers as peers—Russia, China, and the US—reviving the logic of spheres of influence,” he explained.
This means China views Alaska not just as a step toward resolving Ukraine, but as a diplomatic case study: can its own tough and patient strategy yield similar outcomes in its standoff with Washington?
Since 2022, China has become Russia’s most crucial partner, buying oil, supplying dual-use goods, and providing diplomatic backing on the global stage. Foreign Minister Wang Yi even declared that Beijing “cannot accept Russia’s defeat.”
With Ukraine and European leaders excluded from the Alaska summit, Beijing may interpret the meeting as further validation that its patient, assertive approach can ultimately pay off.
Recent moves from Washington have also fueled speculation of a potential reset. Most notably, the US reversed its ban on Nvidia’s H20 chip exports to China, a decision that split US policymakers. While critics warned the move could strengthen China’s military modernization, Beijing saw it as a significant concession.
The Biden administration also blocked Taiwanese Vice President Lai Ching-te’s transit through the US and canceled a planned high-level defense meeting with Taipei—both interpreted in Beijing as gestures of restraint.
Graham Allison, professor at Harvard University, suggests that Trump could unveil a “great new partnership” with China following the Alaska talks, shifting the tone of bilateral relations. While no date has been finalized, insiders say Trump and Xi may meet on the sidelines of APEC in South Korea or the ASEAN summit in Malaysia this October.
For China, the Alaska summit is less about Ukraine and more about precedent. By scrutinizing Trump’s diplomacy with Russia, Beijing is gathering clues for how to navigate its own high-stakes negotiations with Washington. In this sense, Alaska has become not just a diplomatic venue, but a strategic rehearsal for the next chapter of US-China relations.
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