U.S. stocks rise as investors await Nvidia earnings, key economic data, and Fed signals. Bitcoin rebounds while Asian markets diverge sharply.
The return of long-delayed economic data and the heightened anticipation surrounding Nvidia’s earnings have propelled U.S. markets into a cautiously optimistic mood as the new trading week begins. With global investors seeking direction after weeks of volatility, Wall Street now enters one of the most pivotal weeks of the final quarter.
After a sluggish close last Friday, U.S. equity futures ticked upward on Monday. S&P 500 futures gained 0.4%, while Nasdaq 100 futures climbed 0.6%, signaling revived risk appetite ahead of Nvidia’s highly anticipated earnings report — a catalyst that could influence market sentiment in the near term.
Across Asia, tech-related stocks supported the upside, led by SK Hynix and Samsung Electronics following fresh investment commitments in South Korea. Meanwhile, Japan faced significant pressure as its economy contracted for the first time in six quarters, placing additional stress on sectors reliant on tourism and retail demand amid tensions with China.
This divergence highlights a market that is operating at multiple speeds — with the U.S. awaiting critical data, Asia benefiting from tech investments, and Japan confronting the possibility of a technical recession.
No company is under tighter scrutiny this week than Nvidia, the undisputed powerhouse of the AI revolution.
Its stock has surged over 42% year-to-date, far outpacing gains in both the S&P 500 and the Nasdaq 100. The explosive growth of AI — particularly demand for chips used in large language models, cloud infrastructure, and advanced data centers — has positioned Nvidia as a barometer for the entire tech sector.
The central question now is: Can Nvidia’s sky-high valuation remain justified?
Analysts view this earnings release as one of Nvidia’s most consequential reports in 2025, due to several factors:
demand for AI chips remains robust but is stabilizing,
corporate capital expenditure is slowing in certain segments,
and investor positioning indicates increased profit-taking after months of sharp gains.
A strong beat could reignite bullish momentum for tech stocks; conversely, any sign of deceleration may trigger volatility across the broader Nasdaq.
The prolonged U.S. government shutdown halted a wide range of economic releases — leaving investors navigating markets “blindfolded” for weeks.
This week, the flow of information finally resumes, including:
The September nonfarm payrolls report (originally scheduled for Oct. 3)
S&P Global’s manufacturing and services PMIs
University of Michigan consumer sentiment
Minutes from the Fed’s October meeting
These reports are crucial for assessing whether the U.S. economy is moving toward a soft landing, showing resilience, or slowing faster than expected.
However, the White House has cautioned that some October data may be incomplete due to the prolonged shutdown.
The biggest question hovering over financial markets is:
Will the Federal Reserve cut rates in December?
A month ago, markets were almost certain, pricing in a 95% probability of a cut, according to CME FedWatch. Today, that probability has dropped below 50%.
The shift comes after:
steady labor market readings,
inflation that remains stickier than expected,
and a wave of hawkish commentary from Fed officials.
Even Chair Jerome Powell emphasized that a December rate cut is “far from a foregone conclusion.”
This week’s release of FOMC minutes is expected to offer deeper insight into the unusually wide division inside the committee — a key indicator of potential policy direction heading into early 2026.
While equities steadied, Bitcoin also regained momentum, rebounding to around $95,000 after erasing nearly all year-to-date gains during last week’s downturn.
The sharp drop was largely driven by:
fading excitement surrounding the Trump administration’s pro-crypto stance,
profit-taking among institutional investors,
and broader risk-off sentiment across global markets.
Although the recent rebound may be partly technical, it has helped stabilize investor sentiment after a period of heightened volatility.
In Asia, market performance split sharply:
South Korea advanced, buoyed by multi-billion-dollar investment pledges from Samsung and SK Group.
Japan declined, pressured by the first economic contraction in six quarters and tensions with China.
The MSCI Asia Pacific Index fell 0.4%, with two stocks declining for every one that gained.
Japan’s economic weakness could intensify calls for a large fiscal stimulus package from Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi — even as the Bank of Japan maintains its plan to gradually raise interest rates after decades of near-zero or negative rates.
Oil prices slipped after reports that operations had resumed at Russia’s Novorossiysk port, a key export hub recently disrupted by a Ukrainian strike. The reopening eased concerns about supply interruptions in the Black Sea region.
Meanwhile, President Donald Trump signaled support for a proposed U.S. Senate bill targeting countries that maintain business ties with Russia — a stance that indicates intensifying geopolitical pressure on Moscow.
A great deal. As the dominant force in AI hardware, Nvidia heavily influences both the Nasdaq and broader tech sentiment. A strong or weak report could move the entire market.
It is possible but not likely. Current pricing places the probability below 50%, and upcoming labor data will heavily influence the Fed’s decision.
Largely due to technical buying, improved risk sentiment, and short-term stabilization after an overextended sell-off.
Most data will still be reliable, but select October numbers could be incomplete. Analysts will focus more on trends than on isolated datapoints.
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