Boeing Forecasts Demand for 43,600 Jets Over Next 20 Years Amid Strong Air Travel Growth

Ahead of the 2025 Paris Airshow, Boeing has released its latest 20-year market outlook, projecting demand for 43,600 new commercial aircraft through 2044. This demand is driven by a resurgence in global air travel, which is expected to increase by more than 40% by 2030, surpassing pre-pandemic levels.

Single-Aisle Jets Dominate Future Deliveries

Of the 43,600 aircraft projected:

33,300 will be single-aisle jets like the Boeing 737 MAX and Airbus A320neo

Over 7,800 widebody aircraft

955 freighters

1,545 regional jets

Single-aisle models will account for approximately 80% of all deliveries, as airlines continue to expand their short- and medium-haul fleets.

Air Travel Surges, But Growth Forecasts Slightly Lower

Despite solid long-term demand, Boeing has slightly lowered its annual growth projections:

Passenger traffic growth: from 4.7% to 4.2%

Global GDP growth: from 2.6% to 2.3%

Cargo traffic growth: from 4.1% to 3.7%

Fleet growth: from 3.2% to 3.1%

However, Boeing’s VP of Commercial Marketing, Darren Hulst, emphasized that long-term demand remains stable, especially for air cargo, which has shown consistent 4% annual growth over decades.

Post-COVID Demand Rebounds, but Production Lags

While air travel demand has rebounded strongly since COVID-19, aircraft production remains far behind pre-pandemic levels. Boeing estimates a shortfall of 1,500 to 2,000 aircraft globally due to ongoing supply chain and manufacturing challenges.

Both Boeing and Airbus have struggled to return production to full speed, further complicating delivery schedules.

Safety Concerns and FAA Limits Cloud Outlook

Boeing continues to face regulatory pressure following safety concerns, particularly after a mid-air panel blowout involving an Alaska Airlines 737 MAX earlier this year. The U.S. FAA has since capped 737 MAX production at 38 units per month.

The crisis worsened last week after an Air India Boeing 787-8 Dreamliner crash, prompting CEO Kelly Ortberg to cancel his attendance at the Paris Airshow to focus on the investigation.

Asia Drives Growth, North America Focuses on Replacement

Boeing projects that 51% of new aircraft will support fleet expansion, while 49% will replace aging planes.

China and South/Southeast Asia (including India) will account for 50% of new capacity growth

North America and Eurasia will represent over half of replacement deliveries

Currently, China makes up 10% of Boeing’s backlog, though deliveries had been paused due to trade tensions. Boeing expects deliveries to China to resume in June, according to Ortberg.

Competition with Airbus Remains Tight

Just a week earlier, Airbus raised its own 20-year forecast by 2% to 43,420 jets, signaling confidence in aviation’s long-term trajectory. While both companies remain neck-and-neck in market share, Boeing’s ability to meet demand will depend heavily on restoring production levels and regaining public trust.

Conclusion

Despite facing operational and reputational challenges, Boeing remains optimistic about long-term aircraft demand. With rising travel demand and expanding fleets—especially in Asia—the global aviation sector is poised for robust growth, and manufacturers like Boeing and Airbus are racing to meet it.

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