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China’s Exports to Africa Surge Amid Global Trade Shifts and U.S. Tariffs

China’s Exports to Africa Surge Amid Global Trade Shifts and U.S. Tariffs

27 tháng 8 2025

Africa is emerging as a key growth market for Chinese goods as U.S. tariff policies under President Donald Trump reshape global trade flows.

According to the latest Chinese customs data, exports to Africa – a continent of about 1.5 billion people – jumped 25% year-on-year, reaching $122 billion, surpassing the total for 2020. Analysts expect the figure to hit $200 billion for the first time in 2025, outpacing growth in other major markets.

Despite this, China maintains a widening trade surplus with Africa, leveraging opportunities to expand market share while addressing the continent’s pressing infrastructure needs.

Key Drivers: Belt and Road Initiative and a Weaker Yuan

Christopher Beddor, Deputy Director of China Research at Gavekal Dragonomics, noted:
“Chinese exporters have done an impressive job diversifying into emerging markets, particularly Africa. A weaker yuan this year has further boosted competitiveness.”

Much of the current trade boom is linked to the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI), launched by President Xi Jinping in 2013. As Chinese companies secure contracts for railways, industrial parks, and seaports, demand for machinery and building materials from the world’s second-largest economy has surged.

In the first seven months of 2025:

Construction machinery exports to Africa soared 63% year-on-year.

Passenger vehicles under 9 seats more than doubled.

Steel products posted double-digit growth.

Nigeria, South Africa, and Egypt remain China’s largest African markets.

U.S.–China Competition Intensifies in Africa

Growing U.S. protectionism is pushing many African nations closer to Beijing. Several goods from over 30 countries that once enjoyed duty-free access under the African Growth and Opportunity Act (AGOA) now face new U.S. tariffs.

In contrast, China has waived import duties for all African nations maintaining diplomatic ties with Beijing. In June, it allowed agricultural imports from Ethiopia, Congo, Gambia, and Malawi, bringing the total to 19 African countries with access to the Chinese market.

Africa, where less than half the population has reliable electricity and infrastructure gaps remain severe, is increasingly turning to China for industrial-scale solutions.

A joint report by Griffith University and the China Green Finance & Development Center revealed that in the first half of 2025, Africa signed $30.5 billion in construction deals with China – five times more than the same period last year and the highest among BRI regions.

Energy Demand and Rising Role of the Yuan

Zhou Mi, a senior researcher at the Chinese Academy of International Trade and Economic Cooperation, highlighted:
“China’s solutions in solar power, wind energy, and electric vehicles can help African nations overcome energy shortages and achieve economic independence.”

Lower prices are another factor driving growth. Of the 18 major product categories exported to Africa, 14 saw price declines in the first seven months, with transformers and power converters falling by 39%.

Beyond trade, China is deepening its influence through loans and investments. The China Development Bank recently disbursed €245 million for a Nigerian railway project and expanded funding for infrastructure in Egypt. Meanwhile, the yuan is gradually replacing the U.S. dollar in regional transactions. Nigeria, South Africa, Egypt, and Mauritius have signed currency swap agreements with China’s central bank, while Kenya is negotiating to convert part of its debt from USD to yuan.

Challenges Ahead: Debt Risks and Local Backlash

So far, Chinese goods face little resistance in Africa compared to other markets. However, concerns may rise if cheap imports displace local industries or if debt levels spiral.

Still, Lauren Johnston, an expert on China–Africa relations at New South Economics, stressed Africa’s strategic importance:
“Africa is where China builds global experience, creates markets, and strengthens its brand. It’s a critical piece of Beijing’s ambition to lead global development.”

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