China Treads Carefully as U.S. Enters the Iran-Israel Conflict

Following U.S. airstrikes on Iran’s nuclear facilities over the weekend, China has reiterated its support for Tehran. However, its tone has shifted toward caution, signaling a more calculated response to growing tensions in the Middle East.

While China remains one of Iran’s key international partners, its next moves appear to be shaped more by energy security, strategic interests, and a desire to avoid direct confrontation—especially with Washington now actively involved.

Strong Ties, Calibrated Responses

China and Iran have grown closer over the past decade, notably signing a 25-year comprehensive partnership agreement in 2021, covering economic, military, and security cooperation. The two countries have also conducted joint military drills.

With a population nearing 91 million and vast oil reserves, Iran is an important node in China’s Belt and Road Initiative. Chinese state media have even described this partnership as a counterweight to U.S. influence.

Still, China’s core interest lies in ensuring the steady flow of oil—particularly through the Strait of Hormuz, which sees about 20 million barrels of crude oil transit daily. Nearly half of China’s oil imports pass through this vital waterway, often circumventing Western sanctions through non-dollar, yuan-based transactions and alternative shipping routes.

A Hands-Off Approach

Despite its economic ties to Tehran, Beijing is unlikely to involve itself militarily. As Neo Wang, lead China economist at Evercore ISI, explained:

“China will keep its hands off Iran in any case due to its limited influence over Israel and its broader strategic calculus regarding the U.S.”

With U.S.–China tensions running high, instability in the Middle East could serve as a distraction for Washington. This may, paradoxically, align with Beijing’s interests in the short term.

Messaging Shift: From Solidarity to Soft Diplomacy

After Israel’s initial strike on June 12, China condemned the action as a “violation of Iran’s sovereignty.” Yet since then, Beijing has softened its language. While Foreign Minister Wang Yi called Israel’s strikes “unacceptable,” he stopped short of issuing a formal condemnation.

Analysts at Eurasia Group note that Beijing seeks to strike a delicate balance: maintaining alignment with Iran while avoiding escalation with Israel. This reflects China’s broader objective of preventing regional spillover that could threaten its economic and strategic interests.

Shehzad Qazi, managing director of China Beige Book, remarked:

“The U.S. strikes gave China an important narrative: that it’s Washington, not Beijing, that destabilizes the global order.”

Oil, Leverage, and Geopolitical Risk

U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio recently urged China to discourage Iran from closing the Strait of Hormuz. While many observers expect China to take such steps, some experts argue a temporary disruption might not be unwelcome in Beijing.

China sources oil from a range of suppliers—Russia, Saudi Arabia, Iraq, Oman, and Malaysia (with some Iranian oil relabeled as Malaysian exports). Rising oil prices, though costly, might hit the U.S. and Europe harder than China.

“China won’t mind paying more for oil if it means the West suffers relatively more,” said Andrew Bishop, global head of policy research at Signum Global Advisors.

Opportunities Amid Crisis?

Beijing may also see a chance to position itself as a mediator, as it did in brokering the 2023 Iran–Saudi Arabia peace deal. However, many analysts say Israel is unlikely to view China as a neutral party, given its close ties with Tehran and its sensitivity to provoking the Trump administration.

At a recent U.N. Security Council meeting, China’s ambassador Cong Fu condemned U.S. attacks on Iran and called for an immediate ceasefire—directing particular responsibility toward Israel.

Still, Andy Rothman of Sinology LLC believes China is more likely to privately urge Iran to avoid retaliatory strikes on the U.S., in order to prevent further regional instability and protect global economic interests.

“A broader conflict would be bad for global growth—and that’s not something Beijing wants to risk,” he said.

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