Gold Market Heats Up at the End of September: Investors Expect Rally to Continue

The gold market remained highly active at the end of September, with both domestic and international prices climbing sharply. Analysts and investors alike forecast that the upward momentum will continue into the coming week, even as local gold prices remain significantly higher than global levels.

Domestic Gold Prices Climb Sharply

On September 28, Vietnam’s leading gold retailers listed SJC bullion at VND 133 million per tael (buying) and VND 135 million per tael (selling), up VND 2 million compared to the previous week.

Similarly, 24K gold rings and jewelry (99.99%) rose to around VND 128.8 million (buying) and VND 131.5 million (selling), also an increase of VND 2 million per tael.

In the unofficial market, prices jumped even more strongly. Some small shops quoted SJC bars at VND 137.3 million (buying) and VND 139 million (selling), up nearly VND 3 million from last week. However, this still sits about VND 4.5 million below the record peak of VND 143.5 million per tael previously reached.

The spread between buying and selling prices at major companies continues to hover above VND 2 million per tael, underscoring the volatility of the market.

Global Gold Hits New Records

Internationally, gold prices broke new records during the week, briefly touching $3,785 per ounce before settling at $3,764 per ounce—a jump of nearly $80 compared to the prior week.

This surge exceeded most forecasts. According to a Kitco News survey:

On Wall Street, 84% of analysts expected gold to keep rising, none predicted a decline, and 16% anticipated sideways movement.

In the Main Street survey of 265 retail investors, 63% forecast further gains, while 21% expected a pullback and 16% projected consolidation.

Drivers Behind the Rally

Experts highlight several factors underpinning gold’s strength:

Federal Reserve policy: Markets expect the Fed to continue cutting interest rates in the coming months, supporting demand for non-yielding assets like gold.

Central bank demand: Major central banks are still increasing gold reserves as part of their diversification strategies.

Safe-haven flows: Ongoing global uncertainties are driving more investors toward gold as a store of value.

According to David Meger, analyst at High Ridge Futures: “Gold continues to attract strong inflows from both retail and institutional investors. As long as interest rates remain on a downward path, the outlook for gold stays bullish.”

Short-Term Risks: Overheating and Profit-Taking

Despite the bullish outlook, some analysts caution that gold may be entering overbought territory. With the U.S. dollar showing signs of recovery and interest rates still relatively high, short-term corrections are possible as traders lock in profits.

Such pullbacks, however, are expected to be temporary, with the broader trend for gold still pointing upward.

Persistent Gap Between Vietnam and Global Prices

In Vietnam, SJC gold currently trades at about VND 15 million per tael higher than equivalent global prices. Although this premium has narrowed from around VND 20 million per tael earlier this year, it remains far above the target range of VND 4–5 million per tael set by regulators.

This continued disparity poses challenges for market stability and creates additional risks for domestic investors compared to those trading on international exchanges.

Outlook for the Week Ahead

Market sentiment remains firmly positive. With expectations of further Fed rate cuts, strong central bank buying, and persistent geopolitical tensions, analysts believe gold’s rally is unlikely to lose steam in the near term.

Still, investors should brace for potential short-term volatility, as profit-taking and dollar strength could spark brief corrections.