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Gold Market Shows Unclear Trend – "Wait and See" Strategy Advised

Gold Market Shows Unclear Trend – "Wait and See" Strategy Advised

12 tháng 8 2025

With no clear directional movement and a widening spread between domestic and international prices, the gold market is entering a phase of uncertainty. Experts say the most prudent move for investors right now is to stay on the sidelines and observe.

Domestic Gold Prices Cool Slightly, But Price Gaps Remain Wide

As of the morning session on August 12, SJC gold bars were quoted at VND 122.7 – 123.9 million per tael (buy – sell), down VND 500,000 on both ends compared to the previous session. Last week, selling prices had hit a record high of VND 124.4 million per tael.

Gold rings also dipped VND 400,000 per tael, trading around VND 116.5 – 119.4 million per tael.

Despite these declines, the domestic bid-ask spread remains unusually high at nearly VND 2 million per tael, while the price gap between local and global markets has now exceeded VND 17 million per tael.

Gold Prices Drop After Trump’s “No Tax on Gold” Statement

Global gold prices dropped sharply following a social media post by former U.S. President Donald Trump, who wrote on Truth Social: "Gold will not be taxed!"

In response, gold futures fell by 2.48%, settling at $3,404.7/oz. When converted at the current exchange rate (excluding taxes and fees), this equates to approximately VND 107 million per tael – far below domestic levels.

Analysts: Market Stuck in Sideways Movement

Several experts have cautioned against making bold moves in the current climate:

James Stanley, market strategist at Forex.com, sees a support level at $3,350/oz, but remains cautious about short-term upside potential.

Meanwhile, Ole Hansen, Head of Commodity Strategy at Saxo Bank, noted that gold has been “trapped in a range” since April and must break through the $3,450/oz resistance to signal a new bullish trend.

Currently, gold appears to be stuck in a wide sideways (range-bound) pattern, offering no clear signal for either bulls or bears.

Vietnam Gold Market: Fast to Rise, Slow to Fall

A recurring pattern in the Vietnamese gold market is its asymmetric reaction to global price movements. When global prices rise, domestic prices surge almost immediately—often more sharply. However, when global prices drop significantly, domestic prices tend to decline very slowly, if at all.

This behavior makes short-term speculation especially risky, particularly given the wide buy-sell spreads and elevated price levels.

Expert Advice: Patience is Key

Financial analyst Nguyen Minh Huan advises caution:

“Entering any market at this point carries considerable risk. For gold, in particular, the unclear trend and large price spreads make short-term trading highly volatile and potentially loss-making.”

Unless there are significant geopolitical shocks, gold is unlikely to break out in either direction. The U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) also continues to fluctuate unpredictably, providing no strong signals for gold investors.

Buy, Sell, or Hold? Here's What to Consider

For those already holding gold, experts suggest holding onto it unless there is a pressing need to sell, as current prices remain elevated and stable.

As for potential buyers, the recommendation is clear: wait for a clearer trend before making any commitments. Jumping in now could result in buying at a local peak with little room for short-term gains.

Infofinance.com disclaimer:

All information on our website is for general reference only, investors need to consider and take responsibility for all their investment actions. Info Finance is not responsible for any actions of investors.
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