iPhone 17 Reshapes the Smartphone Landscape: Apple Poised to Overtake Samsung for the First Time in Over a Decade

The iPhone 17 lineup is driving a powerful surge in Apple’s global sales, especially in the U.S. and China. Counterpoint Research forecasts that Apple could surpass Samsung to become the world’s top smartphone maker by the end of 2025—a milestone not seen in more than a decade.

1. A rare turning point in the global smartphone market

For over ten years, the global smartphone race has been defined by a familiar rivalry: Samsung consistently leads in unit shipments, while Apple dominates in profits and premium-brand influence. But 2025 is breaking the pattern. For the first time in many years, Apple appears strong enough to overtake Samsung in global sales—if current momentum holds.

Driving this shift is the iPhone 17 series, launched in September 2025. Unlike previous generations that often generated media buzz but modest sales impact, the iPhone 17 lineup is delivering measurable results across markets: higher upgrade rates, expanding market share, and strong adoption in both premium and mass-premium segments. With the exception of the more controversial iPhone Air, the lineup has pushed Apple into Q4 with one of its most robust growth trajectories in recent memory.

According to Counterpoint Research, Apple is on track to potentially become the world’s No.1 smartphone manufacturer by the end of 2025 if current trends continue.

2. Apple’s resurgence: Strong acceleration in key global markets

- United States: Deepening dominance in the premium segment

In the U.S., Apple already commands exceptional brand loyalty, yet the iPhone 17 lineup has strengthened its grip even further—particularly in the high-margin premium category.

Counterpoint reports that in the segment above $600 at T-Mobile, Apple’s market share grew 8 percentage points between 2022 and 2025, reaching an impressive 80%. In practical terms, eight out of every ten premium smartphones sold through this major carrier are now iPhones.

The iPhone 17 Pro and Pro Max are the standout models, especially among users upgrading from older iPhone 13 and 14 devices. Their appeal lies not only in improved performance but also in offering a noticeably different experience, addressing a common criticism that earlier generations felt too incremental.

This shift signals that Apple is successfully convincing consumers to upgrade even amid economic uncertainty—a sign of exceptional product-market fit.

- China: Exceptional momentum in the world’s most competitive market

China remains the toughest arena for Apple, where it competes directly with Huawei, Xiaomi, Oppo, and Vivo. Yet despite fierce competition, the iPhone 17 series has sparked an impressive resurgence.

In October 2025, iPhones accounted for roughly 25% of all smartphones sold in China—a milestone Apple has reached only once before, in 2022. While the overall market grew about 8% year-on-year, Apple’s iPhone sales surged 37%, meaning Apple is not merely benefiting from market recovery—it is taking share from competitors.

Notably, 80% of Apple’s sales in China came from the iPhone 17 lineup, showcasing the series’ strong resonance with local consumers, who typically value performance, battery life, and camera quality.

A striking detail: the iPhone Air was absent from Counterpoint’s highlights, suggesting the ultra-thin model is not achieving meaningful traction in China, where practicality often outweighs aesthetics.

3. Why the iPhone 17 is creating such powerful market momentum

The success of the iPhone 17 is rooted in substantial improvements—not just brand appeal. Unlike some previous cycles focused on niche features, Apple placed its efforts on upgrades that directly enhance everyday user experience.

Core improvements driving demand include:

Performance & Camera Upgrades
The A19 Bionic chip and enhanced thermal performance deliver smoother multitasking and sustained processing power for video recording, gaming, and productivity. The improved camera system—particularly in night mode, portrait rendering, and ProRes video—positions the iPhone 17 as a serious creator-focused device.

A noticeably refreshed design
Slimmer bezels, refined proportions, and new color options make the device feel genuinely different from the iPhone 15 or 16 lineups. Early upgraders describe the iPhone 17 as “distinct enough to justify the leap.”

Better battery efficiency
This has been particularly impactful in China, where heavy daily usage is the norm. Improved power optimization boosts the iPhone 17’s appeal among professional and entertainment-driven users.

Unmatched ecosystem stickiness
Apple’s cross-device ecosystem—iCloud, AirPods, Apple Watch, Mac—remains its strongest advantage. Once integrated, users naturally gravitate toward upgrading within the ecosystem rather than switching to other brands.

4. iPhone Air: A weak point in an otherwise successful cycle

Despite the strong overall performance, the iPhone 17 lineup is not flawless. The absence of the iPhone Air from market impact reports signals weaker-than-expected sales.

Two scenarios are likely:

The Air’s sales volume is too small to highlight, or

Its ultra-thin design simply doesn’t align with consumer preferences in major markets.

In markets where battery life and durability carry more weight than thinness, the Air’s value proposition becomes less compelling. Apple may need to reassess the role of the Air in its long-term product strategy.

5. Samsung: Solid growth, but not enough to defend the top spot

Counterpoint forecasts that Samsung will end 2025 with 4.6% year-over-year growth in global smartphone sales—a respectable figure, but insufficient compared to Apple’s projected 10%.

If Apple sold 231.8 million iPhones in 2024, a 10% increase would put 2025 shipments at approximately 255 million units—enough to surpass Samsung and reclaim the global No.1 position after more than a decade.

Samsung continues to hold major advantages in display technology, foldable devices, and diversified price segments. However, it faces intense competition:

Apple dominates the premium segment

Chinese brands dominate the mid-range market

This dual-front pressure makes rapid growth challenging for Samsung.

6. The 2025–2026 race: Major opportunities—and new challenges for Apple

Even if Apple surpasses Samsung in 2025, the competitive race is far from over. The smartphone industry is entering an AI-first era, defined by on-device intelligence, privacy-centric processing, and sustained performance improvements.

Key competitive dynamics ahead include:

Huawei’s resurgence with domestically developed chips and HarmonyOS

Xiaomi’s expansion across Europe and India with high-value performance models

Samsung’s investment in Galaxy AI and foldable innovations

Apple’s push toward deeper, hardware-level AI integration with strong privacy safeguards

The next phase of competition will center not just on hardware leadership, but on ecosystems, intelligence, and long-term user engagement.

7. Conclusion: iPhone 17 marks a pivotal strategic moment for Apple

Taken as a whole, the iPhone 17 is more than a new product generation—it is a strategic catalyst that has reignited Apple’s global momentum. With strong performance in its two most critical markets, projected double-digit growth, and a clear shift in market dynamics, Apple is closer than ever to reclaiming the top position in global smartphone shipments.

If Counterpoint’s projections come true, 2025 may well be remembered as:
“The year the iPhone 17 propelled Apple back to the top of the global smartphone market.”

FAQ

1. What makes the iPhone 17 so successful?

Meaningful upgrades—stronger performance, better cameras, improved battery life, and a refined design—combined with Apple’s cohesive ecosystem.

2. Will Apple definitely surpass Samsung in 2025?

If Apple achieves around 10% growth and Samsung remains near 4–5%, Apple is highly likely to take the No.1 spot.

3. Is the iPhone Air performing poorly?

Its absence from key reports suggests underperformance, particularly in markets that prioritize battery and durability.

4. What will shape the smartphone market from 2026 onward?

AI-first capabilities, privacy leadership, ecosystem depth, and the pace of innovation across both hardware and software.