NATO Defense Spending May Rise to 5% of GDP – But Not All Members Are Ready

Ahead of this year’s NATO Summit, member countries have reached a preliminary agreement to increase defense spending to 5% of GDP by 2035. But the path to that ambitious goal is expected to be full of challenges.

According to the plan, 3.5% of GDP would go toward "core" military defense, while the remaining 1.5% would be invested in broader security infrastructure, including cyber capabilities and intelligence.

The Reality: A Long Way to Go

NATO data shows that many members are still struggling to meet the existing 2% GDP commitment, a target first agreed upon in 2014. As of 2024, only 23 out of 32 NATO countries have reached the 2% threshold — a big improvement from just six in 2018.

However, no country has reached the 5% level yet, and major economies like Canada, Spain, and Italy continue to lag behind.

How Are Spain, Italy, and Canada Responding?

Spain has openly opposed the spending increase. Prime Minister Pedro Sanchez said the country would cap spending at 2.1% of GDP, arguing that this is sufficient to meet NATO’s core requirements. He called the 5% goal “unreasonable and counterproductive.”

Italy only recently met the 2% target in May 2024. Its Defense Minister, Guido Crosetto, even questioned NATO’s relevance in its current form.

Canada has pledged to hit 2% by 2026, moving up its original timeline from 2030.

Some Countries Are Ahead of the Curve

In Eastern Europe, countries close to the Russia–Ukraine conflict are taking faster action:

Poland says it is on track to spend 5% of GDP on defense soon.

Estonia has approved a multi-year defense investment plan that will raise its defense budget to an average of 5.4% of GDP from 2026 to 2029.

UK and Germany Support the Goal – But May Delay

Both the United Kingdom and Germany have publicly backed the 5% target, but face domestic economic pressures that could delay their ability to meet it. In fact, the UK has reportedly requested a 3-year delay to the spending hike.

Could NATO Tensions Rise?

According to Carsten Nickel from the consultancy Teneo, the growing disparity in defense spending across NATO members could spark internal friction during this year’s summit.

Still, he noted that defense spending is only part of a wider transatlantic challenge, which also includes disagreements over burden-sharing, trade deficits, and China policy — all of which are straining alliance unity.

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