NVDA Outlook: Will Nvidia Stock Crack $1,000 After Earnings?

Keep your eyes on the long-term, even as Nvidia stock may surge or sink

• Nvidia (NVDA) is expected to release its latest quarterly results on May 22.
• It’s far from certain whether this earnings release will drive a post-earnings rally, or a post-earnings plunge.
• However, no matter how shares perform from here in the near-term, keep your focus on the long-term picture with Nvidia stock.

Nvidia (NASDAQ:NVDA) is just a few days away from an event that will most likely drive its next major price move. I’m talking about the Nvidia stock earnings release, scheduled to happen on May 22.

In quarters past, during the height of “AI stock mania,” the reporting of “beat and raise” results was all it may have taken for the market to bid up NVDA before earnings, then bid it up again after earnings.

However, with the market taking a more cautious view about AI stocks, things could play out differently. Although shares are trending up ahead of the earnings release, even the reporting of strong results and updates to guidance may result in a post-earnings sell-off.

Then again, maybe not. A post-earnings surge may still occur. Either way, though, don’t let this event weigh too heavily on your decision to add or maintain NVDA in your portfolio.

Nvidia Stock Earnings: Poised to Disappoint? Not So Fast!

Over the past few weeks, Nvidia’s peers have reported their latest quarterly results. For example, Advanced Micro Devices (NASDAQ:AMD) reported its latest numbers on April 30.

Even as the chip designer reported results and guidance in line with expectations, shares experienced a moderate move lower.

Investors were disappointed with a lack of positive surprises regarding AI chip-related growth. A similar scenario is very well within the realm of possibility for Nvidia stock after its earnings release.

Although the prospect of an AI chip slowdown rattled investors in March, temporarily sending NVDA lower, expectations have bounced back. The bar is now set very high, as Barron’s reporter Adam Clark recently put it.

Despite indications of poor performance, the outlook for shares is not definite.

However, with AI chip powerhouse Nvidia, something like an earnings beat, coupled with upbeat development regarding its upcoming Blackwell advanced AI chips, may prove sufficient to drive a post-earnings rally.

What Matters Most: The Long-Term Growth Story

Nvidia stock currently trades for around $941.36 per share. If all goes right with earnings, even a mid single-digit rally would be enough to send shares above the $1,000 mark. Hitting that price would mark the latest milestone for the “Magnificent Seven” component.

Nevertheless, while there’s nothing bad about the stock hitting four-digit prices, we wouldn’t focus too much on near-term price movement. Conversely, if shares experience an AMD-style moderate dip after earnings, chances are it’s not cause for concern.

The real opportunity here is for NVDA to climb to $1,500, perhaps to $2,000 per share, far sooner than you would think, and even with some volatility along the way.

The generative artificial intelligence growth trend isn’t slowing down. Major tech companies continue to invest heavily in the build out of their respective gen AI infrastructure.

First mover advantage and cutting edge technology like the Blackwell platform will help mitigate the impact of competition.

New end user markets are opening up, including AI chips for PCs. Put it all together, and there’s plenty to support the argument that Nvidia will not only meet, but beat, sell-side growth forecasts in the coming fiscal year.

The Verdict: Keep Cool, Stay Bullish Ahead of Earnings

Sell side consensus calls for Nvidia to report earnings of $24.92 per share the fiscal year ending Jan. 31, 2025, $30.02 per share during FY2026, and $34.73 per share in FY2027. Based on the top end of forecasts, however, actual results could come handily above these figures.

The top end of forecasts call for Nvidia’s earnings to climb above $40 per share next fiscal year, then on toward $50 per share in the fiscal year after that. With that level of earnings growth, NVDA could experience some multiple compression, yet still hit the above price milestones within a reasonable period.

Hence, if you currently own Nvidia stock, there’s no need to head for the hills. If you’ve yet to add it, current prices are a worthwhile entry point for long-term investors.

Nvidia stock earns an A rating in Portfolio Grader.

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