Oil Prices Steady as Markets Await Crucial U.S.-Russia Talks on Ukraine

Crude oil prices held steady on Monday (August 11), following a sharp decline of over 4% last week, as investors turned their focus to an upcoming high-level meeting between the United States and Russia aimed at resolving the conflict in Ukraine.

At the close of the session, Brent crude rose 10 cents to $66.69 per barrel, while WTI crude edged up 12 cents to $64 per barrel.

Geopolitical Talks Set to Influence Market Sentiment

According to the White House, U.S. President Donald Trump is scheduled to meet Russian President Vladimir Putin on August 15 in Alaska, in a bid to negotiate a ceasefire and potentially end the ongoing war in Ukraine.

The meeting comes amid rising diplomatic tensions, as Washington increases pressure on Moscow, warning of tougher secondary sanctions on countries continuing to purchase Russian oil if no peace agreement is reached.

Trump had previously set a deadline of August 8 for Russia to commit to a peace plan. Failure to do so, he warned, could lead to punitive measures not only against Moscow but also against foreign buyers of Russian crude, particularly India, which is facing mounting pressure to cut its imports.

Supply Disruption Risks Reassessed

Oil markets have recently adjusted their expectations regarding potential supply shocks, largely because the U.S. appears to be targeting sanctions more narrowly—primarily on India—rather than imposing broad restrictions on all Russian oil buyers.

In a recent forecast, UBS revised its year-end Brent crude price outlook down to $62 per barrel, from the previous estimate of $68, citing increased supply from South America and stable output from sanctioned countries.

The bank also noted that Indian oil demand has been underwhelming in recent months, which may further weigh on global price recovery in the near term.

OPEC+ May Pause Production Increases

UBS analysts suggested that OPEC+ is likely to hold off on production hikes, unless a significant and unexpected supply disruption occurs.

Meanwhile, energy consultancy Energy Aspects estimated that Indian refineries have purchased around 5 million barrels of WTI crude for August 2025 deliveries, indicating ongoing but fluctuating demand in the region.