OPEC+ to Boost Oil Output in June: A Bold Move Amid Falling Prices

OPEC+ has announced an accelerated oil production increase for the second consecutive month, adding 411,000 barrels per day (bpd) in June. This decision, revealed on Saturday, comes despite falling oil prices and concerns over weaker global demand.

Following an online meeting that lasted just over an hour, OPEC+ stated that oil market fundamentals remain healthy and inventory levels are low—justifying the supply hike.

In April, oil prices plunged to a four-year low below $60 per barrel after OPEC+ surprised the market with a larger-than-expected production boost for May. Additionally, tariffs imposed by U.S. President Donald Trump heightened fears of a global economic slowdown.

Sources report that Saudi Arabia is urging OPEC+ to speed up the unwinding of previous output cuts, aiming to pressure Iraq and Kazakhstan for their ongoing failure to meet production quotas.

This production boost also aligns with calls from President Trump, who has repeatedly asked OPEC+ to ramp up oil output. Trump is expected to visit Saudi Arabia later this month.

In December, eight OPEC+ nations that had implemented the latest 2.2 million bpd output cut agreed to phase it out gradually, with monthly increases of about 138,000 bpd starting from April 2025. With the June hike, the total increase for April, May, and June will reach 960,000 bpd, equating to a 44% rollback of the initial cut.

Brent crude futures dropped over 1% on Friday, settling at $61.29 per barrel, as traders braced for additional supply from OPEC+. According to UBS analyst Giovanni Staunovo, oil prices are expected to fall further on Monday due to OPEC+’s news, coupled with trade tensions and economic growth concerns.

“We continue to call this a ‘managed’ unwind of cuts, not a fight for market share,” Staunovo added.

Reuters reported that Saudi officials—OPEC+’s de facto leader—have informed allies and industry insiders that they are unwilling to prop up oil markets with further cuts.

“Compliance again appears to be the key focus, with Kazakhstan and Iraq continuing to miss their compensation targets, alongside Russia to a lesser extent,” said Helima Croft of RBC Capital Markets.

Kazakhstan defied OPEC+ this month when its energy minister stated that national interests would take priority over OPEC+ commitments. Kazakhstan’s April oil output exceeded its quota despite a 3% decline.

OPEC+, which includes the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and allies such as Russia, is still cutting nearly 5 million bpd, with many cuts expected to remain until the end of 2026. The group plans to hold a full ministerial meeting on May 28.