OPEC+ to Boost Oil Production from October Amid Rising Oversupply Concerns

The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and its allies (OPEC+) announced that it will raise crude output by 137,000 barrels per day (bpd) starting in October 2025, as the alliance accelerates its strategy to reclaim market share in the face of weakening global demand.

Decision Reached in Online Meeting

Following a virtual meeting on September 7, key OPEC+ members — including Saudi Arabia, Russia, Iraq, the UAE, Kuwait, Kazakhstan, Algeria, and Oman — agreed to bring back production faster than initially planned.

The move effectively scales back a portion of the 1.65 million bpd cuts that were originally scheduled to remain in place until the end of 2026. Analysts view this as part of OPEC+’s push to strengthen its position amid rising supply from non-member producers.

Russian Deputy Prime Minister Alexander Novak confirmed Moscow’s compliance with OPEC+ commitments, saying: “The oil market is balanced, and the agreement is being implemented at a very high level.”

Oil Prices Hold Despite Supply Increase

In September 2025, OPEC+ had already approved an additional 547,000 bpd output hike, seen as a response to mounting pressure from the United States to ease oil prices.

Despite the supply expansion, Brent crude — a global benchmark — has held steady at around $66 per barrel, supported by Western sanctions on Russia and Iran as well as tighter output from other producers.

IEA Warns of Potential Oversupply

The International Energy Agency (IEA) cautioned that a significant oil surplus could emerge between late 2025 and early 2026, as higher output coincides with softer global demand and elevated inventory levels. Such a scenario may exert downward pressure on oil prices in the months ahead.