Russia Slashes Brent Oil Price Forecast for 2025: Global Economic Signal?

Russia has lowered its 2025 Brent oil price forecast to $68 per barrel. Urals crude prices drop sharply, raising concerns for the national budget and global markets.

1. Russia Cuts 2025 Brent Oil Price Forecast to $68/barrel

On April 21, the Russian Ministry of Economic Development announced it had lowered its average Brent oil price forecast for 2025 to $68 per barrel, down nearly 17% from the $81.7 projection made in September 2024.

According to the ministry’s new base scenario, Urals crude, Russia’s main export blend, is expected to average only $56 per barrel, well below the $69.7 assumed in the 2025 federal budget.

🔍 Official statement: The projection is a "cautious estimate" considering geopolitical and economic uncertainties ahead.

2. Falling Urals Prices Pose Major Budget Risks

Urals crude is critical to Russia’s budget, with oil and gas revenues making up roughly one-third of total federal income.

In April 2025: Urals crude hit its lowest level since 2023, trading around $53 per barrel.

This past week: Prices remained below $60, raising alarms over budget shortfalls.

3. Central Bank of Russia Issues Long-Term Warning

Earlier this April, Russia’s Central Bank warned that oil prices could stay low for the next few years, citing:

A drop in global demand,

Rising fears of a global recession,

Trade tensions due to U.S. President Donald Trump’s economic policies.

4. Economic Outlook: Growth Holds, Inflation Rises

Despite lower oil prices, Russia maintained its 2025 GDP growth forecast at 2.5%. However, other key adjustments include:

Inflation revised upward to 7.6%, from the previous 4.5%,

The ruble is expected to strengthen slightly, averaging 94.3 RUB/USD this year, compared to 96.5 RUB/USD in the previous outlook.

5. Conclusion: Oil Market Shifts Demand Vigilant Monitoring

Russia’s decision to slash oil price projections reflects a realistic and cautious approach amid growing market uncertainty. Meanwhile, its economic tweaks aim to stabilize macroeconomic conditions despite budgetary pressure.

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