SJC Gold Bar Price Soars to Record High of 136.5 Million VND/Tael: Analysis and Risks

Hanoi, Vietnam – In a dramatic trading session on September 29, the domestic gold market witnessed a historic surge, with the price of SJC gold bars smashing through previous records to hit an unprecedented 136.5 million VND per tael (selling price). This sharp uptick reflects a powerful global gold rally but also harbors potential risks of a sudden reversal, analysts warn.

The domestic surge mirrors a global frenzy, where international gold prices also scaled a new peak, breaching $3,811 per ounce. This parallel ascent underscores deep-seated economic anxieties and shifting central bank strategies worldwide.

Domestic Market Erupts, Setting New Records

The trading day on September 29 began with modest gains. By the afternoon, however, the market exploded. The price of SJC gold bars catapulted by 1.5 million VND per tael compared to the weekend's closing. With buying and selling prices set at 134.5 million and 136.5 million VND per tael respectively, SJC established a new all-time high, decisively breaking the previous peak of 135.9 million VND.

The rally was not confined to gold bars. The 9999 gold ring segment also experienced a robust increase. What started as a modest rise of 200,000 - 300,000 VND per tael in the morning expanded to a significant 900,000 VND jump within hours. Saigon Jewelry Company (SJC) currently lists the buying price for 9999 gold rings at 129.7 million VND and the selling price at 132.4 million VND per tael.

The Global Context: A "Gold Rush" Pushing International Prices to Uncharted Territory

The domestic fervor is a direct consequence of a seismic shift in the global market. International gold prices added $53 per ounce, reaching a record $3,811 per ounce.

Taking a broader view, gold has been on a remarkable bull run since the start of 2025. Its price has skyrocketed by over 40%, climbing from the $2,700-$2,800/ounce range to its current heights around $3,700-$3,800/ounce. The latter half of the third quarter has been particularly explosive, with prices consistently breaking records.

A critical point of analysis is the significant price gap. When converted at the Vietcombank exchange rate, global gold is equivalent to approximately 121.5 million VND per tael—a staggering 15 million VND lower than the domestic SJC price. This disparity highlights unique supply-demand dynamics within Vietnam's market.

Decoding the Rally: The Powerful Forces Fueling the Rally

According to market analysts, this powerful rally is underpinned by a confluence of strong fundamental factors:

Rate Cut Expectations and Geopolitical Jitters: Strong buying from Exchange-Traded Funds (ETFs) is a key driver, fueled by growing anticipation that major central banks, led by the U.S. Federal Reserve (Fed), will soon begin cutting interest rates. Added to this are lingering concerns about the Fed's independence and escalating global geopolitical tensions, which push investors towards safe-haven assets like gold.

The Central Bank Buying Spree, Led by China: This is perhaps the most critical structural support. The People's Bank of China (PBOC) has been a consistent and steady buyer of gold. It currently holds over 2,300 tons, which constitutes about 8% of its total foreign exchange reserves—still significantly lower than the global central bank average of 21.7%. If China aims to raise this ratio to 20%, it would need to purchase an additional 3,036 tons of gold, enough to surpass Germany and become the world's second-largest gold holder after the United States.

The De-Dollarization Trend: Following the Western freeze of nearly half of Russia's foreign reserves in 2022, many central banks have actively diversified their reserves by accumulating gold, reducing their reliance on the U.S. dollar. Central banks' net purchases have remained high at around 1,000 tons per year since the event; for 2025 alone, the figure is projected to be around 900 tons—double the average of the 2016-2021 period.

Domestic Factors in Vietnam: The State Bank of Vietnam has attributed the sharp price increase to three main factors: the upward trend in global prices, strong domestic purchasing demand from the public, and a temporary scarcity of SJC supply due to an ongoing management mechanism transition.

Outlook and Warnings: Peaks and Potential Pitfalls

Is the gold boom sustainable? Many experts believe the upward trend in the medium to long term is not over, especially in an uncertain world. However, investors must remain vigilant about a potential "countdown" event.

The enactment of Government Decree 232/2025, effective October 10, is a pivotal factor. This decree will allow qualified enterprises and commercial banks to import gold raw materials. This is expected to make the domestic supply more plentiful, which could subsequently lead to a price correction for local gold and narrow the substantial premium over world prices.

In conclusion, gold remains an attractive asset in any investment portfolio, but it is not without significant risks. In a world where uncertainty is the only certainty, gold prices may continue to break new records, but they are also entirely capable of a sudden and sharp reversal. Investors must equip themselves with sound knowledge, maintain a calm psychology, and crucially, avoid the FOMO (Fear Of Missing Out) mentality when the market is at its peak.

Frequently Asked Questions (FAQ)

1. Why is the domestic price of SJC gold 15 million VND/tael higher than the world price?
This significant disparity stems from several causes: import duties, production and business costs, and most importantly, a current scarcity of SJC gold bar supply due to the ongoing transition in management mechanisms. High domestic demand meeting constrained supply has pushed local prices significantly higher.

2. What impact will Decree 232/2025 have on domestic gold prices?
Decree 232/2025, effective October 10, 2025, is expected to have a positive impact. By permitting qualified businesses and banks to import gold raw materials, the supply of gold bars in Vietnam is anticipated to become more abundant. This will likely help cool down domestic gold prices and gradually narrow the price gap with the international market.

3. What should individual investors do during this period of high volatility?

- Absolutely Avoid FOMO: Refrain from buying in when the price is at a record high and highly volatile.

- Monitor Global Indicators Closely: Keep a close watch on Fed interest rate decisions, U.S. economic data, and geopolitical developments.

- Consider Your Investment Goals Carefully: If investing for the long term, consider price corrections as potential opportunities. For short-term speculation, extreme caution and risk preparedness are essential.

- Diversify Your Portfolio: Do not "put all your eggs in one basket." Gold should only be one part of a well-diversified investment portfolio.

4. Why are central banks buying so much gold?
Central banks are primarily buying gold to diversify their foreign exchange reserves and reduce dependence on the U.S. dollar, thereby enhancing the security of their national holdings. Gold is a safe-haven asset, unaffected by the inflation or political fluctuations of any single country.