Wall Street slips after government reopening as missing data worries investors

The U.S. government reopens, but key October economic data may be lost forever — leaving investors worried and the Fed uncertain about rate cuts.

A quiet market after a political storm

After 43 days of paralysis, the U.S. government has officially reopened, ending the longest shutdown in American history.
Yet, instead of the expected market rebound, Wall Street opened Thursday in muted fashion — a surprising calm after weeks of political chaos.

S&P 500 futures edged lower, the Dow Jones held flat, and the Nasdaq slipped slightly.
In currency markets, the U.S. dollar weakened, while the Swiss franc strengthened, buoyed by hopes that Washington might cut tariffs on Swiss goods — a small headline, but one that reflects investors’ flight to safety amid uncertainty.

Government reopens, but data disappears

Many investors hoped the reopening would unleash a flood of delayed economic data — from employment to inflation reports.
However, the White House delivered a stark warning late Wednesday: several crucial data releases for October “are likely never to be published.”

Press Secretary Karoline Leavitt told reporters,

“All the economic data delayed during the shutdown has been permanently impaired. That leaves policymakers at the Federal Reserve flying blind at a critical period.”

Her remarks sent a chill through markets.
Without reliable data, the Fed loses the very compass that guides its policy moves — particularly at a time when investors were betting on a rate cut in December.

The “data blackout” problem: Wall Street’s new anxiety

Economists are calling the situation a “data blackout” — a term that captures the current vacuum of economic information.
For over a month, agencies like the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) and the Commerce Department were unable to publish reports.
Now, many of those datasets are considered irretrievably compromised, due to disrupted collection processes and gaps in verification.

This creates a dangerous scenario. The Fed’s monetary decisions depend almost entirely on hard data — jobs, consumer prices, and production trends.
Without those signals, the central bank may have to keep interest rates higher for longer, or worse, delay policy adjustments that could support growth.

Economist Michael Brown of RBC Capital Markets warned,

“An economy can’t function properly when flying blind. If the Fed must make decisions in the dark, the risk of policy mistakes rises dramatically.”

Markets respond cautiously: dollar dips, franc and gold climb

In global trading, the U.S. dollar edged lower, extending a three-session losing streak.
Investors pivoted to safe-haven assets like the Swiss franc and gold, as confidence in U.S. data and Fed policy weakened.

The Swiss franc gained after President Donald Trump said he was considering cutting import tariffs on Swiss goods, a gesture meant to ease trade frictions and restore investor confidence.

Meanwhile, gold prices climbed to a three-week high, reflecting rising demand for safety as the global market digests the idea of an America “without data.”

Fed’s challenge: policymaking without visibility

Analysts agree that the biggest risk isn’t the shutdown itself — it’s the aftermath.
The data gap disrupts not only the statistical continuity used for forecasts but also the credibility of U.S. economic reporting.

“If the data is distorted, every forecast becomes unreliable,”
said Jeffrey Kleintop, chief global strategist at Charles Schwab.
“When the Fed doesn’t have the full picture, it defaults to caution — which likely means keeping rates higher for longer.”

That caution has already shifted market expectations.
Traders have reduced the odds of a December rate cut from 60% to 35%, according to CME FedWatch data.
Without clear guidance, investors are preparing for a scenario where monetary tightening lingers, even as growth slows.

Funds move into defensive positions

As information dries up, capital flows are shifting.
Institutional investors are increasing exposure to bonds, energy, and healthcare, while trimming positions in technology and financials, sectors most sensitive to policy shifts.

U.S. 10-year Treasury yields ticked lower, reflecting demand for safer assets.
Analysts at Morgan Stanley described the new market mood as “defensive by design”, predicting that investors will prioritize stability over growth in the fourth quarter.

“This post-shutdown period could be unusually volatile,”
one strategist noted.
“Funds are retreating to safety until the Fed and data come back into focus.”

Global ripple effects: uncertainty spreads beyond America

The U.S. data blackout isn’t just a domestic issue.
Global markets rely heavily on U.S. indicators to model trade flows, currency trends, and capital movement.
Now, economists in Europe and Asia face what one analyst called “forecast blindness” — an inability to calibrate their outlooks without America’s economic pulse.

Across Asia, major stock indexes slipped, while in Europe, the euro wobbled against the dollar amid cautious trading.
Investors worldwide are watching for clues from the Fed, but with no new data, even the world’s most sophisticated models are running on guesswork.

Long-term damage: losing trust in U.S. data integrity

Beyond the short-term volatility, economists warn that the credibility of U.S. data systems may have suffered lasting damage.
If critical reports can be delayed, distorted, or discarded due to political deadlock, global confidence in U.S. transparency could erode.

That could weaken the dollar’s dominance over time, as markets diversify away from U.S.-centric models.
It also places new pressure on the Federal Reserve, which must maintain both policy credibility and communication clarity in an environment of incomplete information.

“When data reliability falters, markets turn to sentiment,”
said Alexandra Hermann of Oxford Economics.
“And sentiment is far more fragile than numbers.”

A market learning to survive in the dark

The U.S. government’s reopening should have been a relief rally.
Instead, it revealed a deeper fragility — a market forced to navigate without its most critical instrument: information.

For now, investors, analysts, and policymakers alike are learning to live with uncertainty.
The next few weeks will test whether sentiment alone can sustain the world’s largest economy in a temporary data void.

In this new environment:
– The data is gone, but the volatility remains.
– The Fed is cautious, but investors are restless.
– And perhaps most importantly, trust — not numbers — will define the market’s next move.

FAQs

1. Why did the U.S. market react weakly after the government reopened?
Investors are worried about the loss of critical economic data and the Fed’s uncertainty, prompting a cautious, defensive stance.

2. What data did the White House say may never be released?
Reports on October inflation and labor market figures were reportedly lost or irreparably delayed during the shutdown.

3. How does this affect the Federal Reserve’s decisions?
Without reliable data, the Fed may hesitate to cut interest rates, opting instead for caution to avoid policy errors.

4. Which assets are performing better in this uncertain environment?
Safe-haven assets like gold, Treasury bonds, and the Swiss franc have gained as investors move away from riskier equities.