Affluent Chinese as Pessimistic About the Economy as During Covid, Survey Finds

Wealthy consumers in China scale back spending, prioritize emotional well-being, and pivot toward travel, as long-term economic confidence declines.

Beijing — A recent study by consulting firm Oliver Wyman reveals that China’s affluent consumers are now as pessimistic about the economy as they were during the height of the Covid-19 pandemic, signaling a deepening shift in sentiment and spending behavior among the country’s wealthiest.

The May 2025 survey showed 22% of affluent respondents expressed a negative outlook on the economy, slightly exceeding the 21% recorded in October 2022 — just before China began lifting its strict zero-Covid measures.

Confidence in the Future Is Fading

Even more telling than near-term anxiety is the sharp decline in optimism about the five-year economic outlook, compared to previous years.

“This is a fundamental shift in mindset,” said Imke Wouters, partner at Oliver Wyman. “If someone feels financially insecure today, their spending and saving habits will change dramatically.”

“The longer this uncertainty drags on, the more pessimistic they become about the long-term future — and the more cautious they become with their spending,” she added.

The survey was conducted between May 16 and 27, sampling 2,000 households earning over 30,000 yuan ($4,180) per month — a high-income bracket in China. For context, the average per capita urban disposable income in China for 2024 was just over 54,000 yuan per year, a fraction of U.S. figures.

Young Urban Affluent Are the Most Pessimistic

The most dramatic drop in sentiment came from young affluent Chinese aged 18 to 28, particularly those living in Tier-1 cities like Beijing, Shanghai, and Shenzhen. This group showed the largest decline in optimism from April to May.

The trend aligns with persistent youth unemployment in China — the jobless rate among 16 to 24-year-olds remains in the mid-teens, significantly higher than the national average of about 5%.

Conversely, respondents aged 29 to 44 were the most optimistic, especially in their five-year outlook. According to Wouters, this is largely because wealth in China is concentrated among Millennials and Gen X, who benefit from greater asset accumulation and job stability — along with a lingering hope that “the good old days” could return.

Wealth Erosion and the Perception of Inequality

The erosion of property values, which make up the bulk of household wealth in China, continues to drag down sentiment. Simultaneously, deflationary pressure and weakened retail sales growth signal broader challenges for the domestic economy.

Adding to the unease is a growing perception of social inequality. A long-running academic survey by Harvard’s Martin Whyte and Stanford’s Scott Rozelle found that in 2023, “unequal opportunity” became the number one reason people believe others are poor, a sharp rise from sixth place two decades ago.

Across income levels, more respondents than ever felt their families' economic situation had worsened in the past year.

China’s official consumer confidence index remains low — registering 88 in May, barely above the historic low of 85 from November 2022.

Affluent Consumers Turn to Travel Over Luxury Goods

Despite the economic pessimism, wealthy Chinese are increasing their international travel plans, showing a clear shift in how they choose to spend.

“Rather than buy another luxury item, they’re choosing to spend on something that makes them feel good now,” Wouters said. “They just want to enjoy the moment.”

Oliver Wyman estimates that 37% of affluent Chinese will travel internationally in 2025, surpassing the 32% who did so in 2019. As of May, 27% had already traveled abroad, and another 10% plan to do so before year-end.

However, the destinations have shifted. Rather than returning to traditional hotspots like the U.S., Chinese tourists are opting for regional destinations. Travel to Malaysia and Japan has fully recovered to pre-pandemic levels, the study found.

Conclusion

The findings paint a complex picture of China’s affluent class — deeply uncertain about the long-term economy, increasingly concerned with fairness and opportunity, yet still eager to seek emotional fulfillment through travel and short-term experiences.

For global brands, retailers, and policymakers, understanding this mindset shift is key to navigating China’s evolving consumer landscape in the post-pandemic era.