Brexit Drove Businesses Out of the U.K. — Trump’s EU Tariffs Might Bring Them Back

Back in 2016, the U.K.’s vote to leave the European Union sent shockwaves through the business world. Multinational firms responded by shifting operations, assets, and jobs from the U.K. to continental Europe in an effort to sidestep trade barriers.

Fast forward to 2025, and a new geopolitical development is emerging: U.S. President Donald Trump’s proposed 30% tariffs on EU goods, set to take effect on August 1, could now position the U.K. as a strategic winner.

Could the U.K. Become a Tariff Haven?

According to Alex Altmann, partner at Lubbock Fine and Vice President of the British Chamber of Commerce in Germany, the U.K. may reap the benefits if Trump’s tariff threat becomes reality.

“If the EU faces a 30% tariff rate while the U.K. enjoys significantly lower U.S. tariffs, European companies will be incentivized to shift manufacturing to the U.K. or expand their existing operations there,” he explained.

The U.K. still has spare manufacturing capacity following years of underutilization after Brexit. A tariff gap between the EU and U.K. could provide the perfect economic opening for the U.K. to reclaim its role as a key manufacturing hub in Europe.

A Trade Policy Sweet Spot Between the U.S. and the EU

Unlike the EU, the U.K. has already signed a favorable trade agreement with the U.S., including:

A reduction in car import duties to 10%

Lower tariffs on steel exports

A post-Brexit reset deal with the EU under Labour Prime Minister Keir Starmer, which has stabilized relations and facilitated smoother trade

This positions the U.K. uniquely between two economic giants, potentially turning it into a neutral ground for multinational manufacturers looking to avoid trade penalties.

Post-Brexit Recovery: From Uncertainty to Opportunity

After leaving the EU, the U.K. faced a difficult adjustment period. Red tape, regulatory divergence, and the loss of frictionless trade with Europe caused many companies — particularly in financial services — to relocate to EU cities like Paris, Dublin, Amsterdam, and Frankfurt.

While the corporate exodus was not as severe as initially feared, Brexit undeniably weakened U.K. trade, investment, and economic growth. The Office for Budget Responsibility estimates that U.K. exports and imports will be 15% lower in the long term, with GDP about 5% smaller than it would have been if the country had remained in the EU.

Trump’s Tariffs: A Windfall or Wishful Thinking?

Although some in Britain are optimistic about gaining from Trump’s planned tariffs on EU goods, analysts warn against premature celebration.

Carsten Nickel, managing director at Teneo, points out:

“Even if the U.S. does impose 30% tariffs on the EU, relocating production from the EU to the U.K. would take years, if not decades. That kind of strategic shift doesn’t happen overnight.”

He also emphasized that the U.K.’s comparative advantage lies in financial services, not high-end manufacturing, which remains concentrated in countries like Germany and Italy.

“It’s unrealistic to assume that factories in Germany or Switzerland will suddenly move to the U.K. next month. These are long-term business decisions that require stable conditions and confidence,” Nickel added.

Conclusion

The U.K. may find itself in an unexpected position to benefit from global trade tensions — but turning that opportunity into reality will depend on more than just tariffs. Reviving manufacturing, attracting long-term investment, and building confidence in the U.K.’s post-Brexit business environment are the real challenges ahead.