Bitcoin Eyes $54,000 Amid September Challenges, QCP Capital Warns

Bitcoin (BTC) has started the week on a down note, trading within the $58,000 range after briefly surpassing $60,000.

Analysts warn that conditions might worsen before improving, especially with the presence of a reversal zone that could influence price movement. Additionally, the crypto markets are anticipating key events this month, which could lead to increased volatility for Bitcoin.

QCP Capital researchers expect Bitcoin to face further correction, with Bitcoin likely to find strong support around the $54,000 level. This comes after Bitcoin ended the month down 8.6%, impacted by the Bank of Japan (BOJ) crash earlier.

QCP points out Bitcoin’s historical trend of a -4.5% return in September, suggesting a potential retracement to around $55,000. Indeed, historical performance data paints a grim picture for September. According to Coinglass, Bitcoin has consistently underperformed this month, with an average return of -4.78% since 2013.

Bitcoin Monthly Returns. Source: CoinGlass

Moreover, the third quarter (Q3) has historically been tough for Bitcoin and the broader crypto market, with September often bringing caution among investors. This approach is reflected in the poor performance of Bitcoin ETFs, including BlackRock’s iShares Bitcoin Trust (IBIT). The recent CryptoQuant report notes fewer stablecoin inflows, signaling that investors remain wary and believe the downtrend may continue.

However, popular trader Daan Crypto Trades points to the potential for a short-term pullback due to a new CME Gap near $59,000 and last week’s gap.

“A new CME Gap was made this weekend sitting at ~$59,000. Last week’s gap is also still partially open but the price did close most of it during that move to $61,000,” the trader wrote.

A CME gap occurs when Bitcoin’s price on the Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME) differs between the market’s close and its reopening after a weekend or holiday. These gaps are often filled as the price tends to return to the gap’s level. 

Bitcoin CME Gap. Source: Daan Crypto

Amidst current market volatility, Bitcoin whales are actively adjusting their portfolios. For instance, one whale withdrew 1,100 BTC from Binance, while another bought 1,000 BTC, increasing their holdings.

Avinash Shekhar, Co-founder of Pi42, predicts further fluctuations, especially with upcoming US economic events. He notes that a strong September employment report could temper expectations for easier monetary policy.

“A strong September US employment report could temper expectations for easier monetary policy, potentially leading to further market volatility. However, there’s also a 50% chance of an upward trend,” Shekhar told BeInCrypto.

With the United States Federal Reserve (Fed) poised to implement a new monetary policy in September, Bitfinex analysts warn that the agency’s decision could adversely affect bitcoin’s price.

According to a recent research report from Bitfinex, the analyst team stated that BTC could face a decline of up to 20% if the Fed decides to cut interest rates lower. They pointed out that the expected rate cut could “significantly influence both bitcoin’s short-term volatility and long-term trajectory.”

According to historical data, cycle peaks in percentage returns typically decrease by 60-70% each time, in addition to a reduction in average bull market corrections.

Thus, they project bitcoin’s price to be around $60,000 before the rate cuts, placing the potential bottom between the low $50,000 and mid $40,000.

Despite the warnings for September, Bitfinex analysts remain bullish for bitcoin, adding that the volatility presents traders with both risks and opportunities.

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