Experts Explain How Russia Is Evolving Its Attack Strategy Against Ukraine

From upgraded drones to coordinated missile barrages, Russia is shifting its battlefield tactics in Ukraine, signaling a new phase in the ongoing conflict. Experts warn that Ukraine’s air defense systems are increasingly strained, as Moscow intensifies both the scale and sophistication of its assaults.

According to Ihor Romanenko, military analyst and former Deputy Chief of the General Staff of Ukraine’s Armed Forces, Russia is rapidly enhancing its offensive capabilities — both in terms of quantity and tactical deployment. In an interview with RBC-Ukraine on July 23, Romanenko described how Russia is increasingly relying on a broad array of aerial strike tools, including advanced drones (UAVs), precision munitions, decoys, communication and reconnaissance platforms, cruise missiles, and ballistic weapons.

New Drone Tactics Challenge Ukraine's Defenses

One of the most striking changes in recent Russian strategy is its adaptation of drone usage. Previously, drones typically flew low — around 1 km in altitude — and descended just before reaching their targets. Today, many UAVs are flying between 1.5 to 4 kilometers high, significantly reducing their visibility to Ukraine’s mobile anti-air units, especially at night. At those altitudes, truck-mounted machine guns and low-altitude air defense systems struggle to detect and engage the targets effectively.

According to Major General Christian Freuding, head of Germany’s Ukraine Situation Center, Russia may be preparing to launch up to 2,000 attack drones in a sustained campaign, supported by its expanding domestic production capabilities. This represents a severe challenge for Ukraine’s overburdened and multi-layered air defense systems.

Data shared by the Ukrainian Air Force and reported by the Financial Times (July 21) reveals a significant uptick in UAV penetration rates. Between April and June 2025, about 15% of Russian drones successfully breached Ukrainian defenses, up from just 5% in the preceding quarter — the highest rate since the war began in 2022.

Mass Attacks Push Ukraine’s Defense to the Limit

This surge in offensive capability was on full display during the massive overnight attack from July 20 to 21, when Russia launched over 400 drones in a coordinated strike from multiple directions. The Ukrainian Air Force reported that 426 UAVs — including both attack and decoy Shahed drones — were launched during that assault, alongside:

5 Kinzhal air-launched ballistic missiles

4 Kalibr cruise missiles

1 Iskander-K cruise missile

14 Kh-101 cruise missiles

Roughly 5.4% of the drones hit their intended targets — a slightly higher-than-average success rate in recent months. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky confirmed on July 23 that Russia had launched over 100 drones and four missiles during that single night alone.

These developments underscore the strategic advantage of low-cost, high-volume attacks, even when facing modern layered air defense systems. It also highlights Russia’s ability to rapidly adjust its tactical approaches to stretch Kyiv’s already-limited military resources.

Evolving Drone Capabilities and Strategic Focus

According to Oleksandr Matviienko, drone warfare expert at Ukrainian defense-tech platform Counteroffensive Pro, Russia is making substantial improvements to its slow-moving UAVs, increasing their speed and operational range. These changes are allowing drones to evade ground-based gunfire — including truck-mounted machine guns commonly deployed by Ukrainian forces.

Russia has also shifted its focus from launching UAVs broadly across Ukrainian territory to targeting one or two cities at a time, creating a more concentrated and effective threat.

Tactical Shifts Point to Long-Term Escalation

A July 23 report by the Institute for the Study of War (ISW) noted a clear increase in the scale and frequency of Russia’s drone attacks during June and July 2025, compared to earlier months. This indicates not just a tactical shift, but an overall escalation in Russia’s offensive capabilities.

Analysts agree that Ukraine now faces a critical juncture: as Russian attacks become more relentless and technologically refined, Kyiv must innovate quickly, seeking new air defense strategies, expanding international support, and enhancing domestic production of counter-drone systems.