Gold Price Forecast for October 13, 2025: Cooling Down After a Record Rally – Will SJC Gold Decline?

Gold prices on October 13, 2025, are expected to cool after a strong rally. Will SJC gold follow the global correction trend?

Domestic Gold Prices: SJC Extends Gains, But Outlook Turns Cautious

At the opening of Monday’s session (October 13), Vietnam’s SJC gold prices were adjusted upward by VND 800,000 per tael in both buying and selling directions compared to last week’s close, quoted at VND 141.6–143.6 million per tael (buy–sell).

Similarly, SJC gold rings (1–5 taels) rose to VND 137.4–140.1 million, up VND 600,000 from the weekend. Meanwhile, Doji 9999 gold rings jumped by VND 1.1 million, trading at VND 137.9–140.9 million (buy–sell).

By comparison, last Friday (October 11) SJC bars closed at VND 140.8–142.8 million. Week-on-week, SJC bars advanced VND 3.7 million, SJC rings increased VND 3.5 million, and Doji rings climbed VND 3.3 million per tael.

Global Gold Prices: Safe-Haven Demand Drives a New Upswing

Global spot gold started the week higher, reaching $4,040.7 per ounce at 8:31 a.m. (Vietnam time), up about $60 from last week’s close.

Converted using local bank exchange rates, that equals roughly VND 129.4 million per tael, still about VND 14.2 million lower than domestic SJC gold prices.

The renewed surge in gold is being fueled by escalating U.S.–China trade tensions. U.S. President Donald Trump recently warned of imposing 100% punitive tariffs on Chinese goods starting November 1, unless Beijing offers clear concessions. In response, China restricted exports of rare earth minerals, essential for producing semiconductors, EVs, and defense technologies — a move seen as a strategic countermeasure that rattled global supply chains.

This trade escalation, combined with the ongoing U.S. government shutdown, has heightened uncertainty and driven investors toward safe-haven assets like gold.

This week, market attention will focus on Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell’s speech at the National Association for Business Economics on Tuesday, the Empire State Manufacturing Survey, and the Philly Fed Index. Additionally, discussions from the IMF–World Bank Annual Meetings in Washington are expected to influence market sentiment.

Gold Market Outlook: Signs of Cooling After a Meteoric Rise

After surpassing the $4,000/oz threshold, bullish sentiment in the gold market has shown signs of moderation. According to Kitco News, about half of Wall Street analysts and retail investors have shifted to a neutral stance, signaling caution after the recent highs.

Sean Lusk, Co-Head of Commercial Hedging at Walsh Trading, noted that “the market is looking for every excuse to push gold higher, and the U.S. government shutdown has become a catalyst.” He emphasized that even typically bearish triggers — such as a stronger U.S. dollar or easing Middle East tensions — have failed to suppress demand.

Still, Lusk warned: “Nothing rises forever.” A failure to maintain support near $3,950/oz could spark a short-term correction.

Investment bank Goldman Sachs recently raised its year-end 2026 gold forecast to $4,900/oz, citing persistent central bank buying and a potential return of ETF inflows once the Fed begins cutting rates. 

Meanwhile, Investing.com projects gold to consolidate within the $3,900–$4,300/oz range in Q4 2025, with a stronger rally possible in 2026 if macro conditions align. 

Key Risks That Could Pressure Gold Prices

Trade truce: A potential U.S.–China trade deal could ease geopolitical stress, reducing safe-haven demand.

Fed policy: If the Fed maintains a hawkish stance, higher interest rates would increase the opportunity cost of holding gold.

Stronger U.S. dollar: A rebound in the greenback could weigh on dollar-denominated commodities.

Technical breakdown: Breaching the $3,950/oz support level might trigger automated sell-offs.

Year-End 2025 Gold Price Scenarios

Frequently Asked Questions (FAQ)

1. Will SJC gold prices decline this week?
Although domestic prices rose early in the week, analysts expect potential cooling in global markets, which could later impact SJC prices.

2. Why is domestic gold so much higher than international rates?
Domestic gold remains VND 10–15 million per tael higher due to taxes, import costs, and limited market supply.

3. What are the main factors driving gold prices now?
U.S.–China trade frictions, geopolitical instability, and safe-haven flows are the key price drivers.

4. Could gold fall below $3,950/oz?
If major support levels break, a technical correction could follow, though long-term fundamentals remain strong.