Why Is Gold Soaring? Analyzing the Drivers Behind 2025’s Bullish Gold Market

Gold ends another week at record highs: spot breaks $4,000, SJC nears VND 143 million. Safe-haven demand surges amid geopolitical risks.

A New Surge in the Global Gold Market

By October 12, 2025, gold prices closed the week on a historic high as safe-haven demand intensified globally. In Vietnam, the SJC gold bar closed at VND 142.8 million/lượng, inching toward VND 143 million.
At the international level, spot gold began the week near USD 3,890/ounce, then rallied past USD 4,000/ounce, peaking around USD 4,060, before modestly retreating and stabilizing above USD 4,000 at week’s end. That marked the eighth consecutive week of gains, a rare streak in the commodities world.

Global Gold Price Movements

The week opened with spot gold at ~USD 3,890/oz, then quickly surged to about USD 3,974 before pulling back to ~USD 3,945.

In subsequent sessions, buyers pushed price decisively past USD 4,000/ounce, reaching as high as USD 4,060/ounce midweek — a new record.

Profit-taking led to dips back toward USD 3,950, but the USD 3,950 zone held firm as strong support. Ultimately, the market finished the week above USD 4,000/ounce.

By week’s close, the price stood near USD 3,980.7/ounce, up ~2% from the prior week. Over the past two months, gold has gained roughly 51% year-to-date.

This rally aligns with broader market trends: gold broke above USD 4,000 for the first time in history earlier in October. 

Forces Behind the Rally

◼ Safe-haven Demand & Geopolitics

Persistent geopolitical tensions and global uncertainty continue to drive investors toward gold. With storms of uncertainty from conflicts, trade disputes, and partisan gridlock in major economies, gold has reasserted itself as a shelter from volatility.
Analysts note that gold’s rally in 2025 has been underpinned not just by fear, but by growing recognition of its role as a general “all-occasions” asset. Al Jazeera

◼ Central Banks & ETF Flows

Institutional accumulation in gold-backed ETFs and increased purchases by central banks have added structural demand. In particular, ETF inflows saw a notable increase in the third quarter, with one report citing 221.7 tons (~USD 26 billion) flowing in. That elevated total holdings to near 2020 highs.

◼ Weak USD & Fed Policy Expectations

A weakening U.S. dollar lowers the cost of gold for foreign buyers, further stimulating demand. Concurrently, speculation that the Fed may soon cut interest rates reduces the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding assets like gold.
However, bulls note that gold’s ascent is also a reflection of mounting concerns around global debt, inflation, and systemic risks—not solely U.S. monetary policy. Al Jazeera+1

Domestic Gold in Vietnam

On October 11, SJC gold bars were quoted at VND 140.8 – 142.8 million/lượng (buy – sell), rising by VND 600,000 on both sides.

Other local brands mirrored SJC’s pricing.

SJC jewelry rings (Loại 1–5 chỉ) traded at VND 136.8 – 139.5 million/lượng, also up by VND 600,000 per lượng over the prior session.

Doji 9999 gold rings reached VND 136.8 – 139.8 million/lượng, climbing ~VND 300,000.

In earlier periods, SJC bars broke records near VND 136 million/lượng as domestic demand spiked. SGGP English Edition
Note: Recent reforms in Vietnam’s gold market ended the state monopoly on bullion production. Vietnam Briefing

Short- & Medium-Term Forecasts

Short-Term

Gold may continue its upward trend, though technical pullbacks are likely after repeated record-setting sessions. The USD 4,000/oz level now stands as a psychological pivot — where profit-taking could ramp up.
Analysts caution that while momentum is strong, overbought conditions (e.g. in RSI, volume) may cause intermittent retracements.

Medium-Term

Paul Williams, CEO of Solomon Global, suggests that gold’s trajectory toward USD 4,000 is backed by strong fundamentals, and any dips between 3,900–4,100 are likely to find buyers.

Christopher Vecchio, head of futures strategy at Tastylive, remarks that while volatility is expected short term, the long-term trend remains bullish, driven by systemic risks, sovereign debt burdens, and waning faith in fiat currencies.

FAQ (Frequently Asked Questions)

1. Why is gold rallying so strongly in October 2025?
Multiple drivers: heightened safe-haven demand, central bank and ETF accumulation, USD weakness, and growing fears about inflation and sovereign debt.

2. Might gold price correct soon?
Yes, short-term technical pullbacks are normal, especially after steep moves. Look for support near USD 3,950/oz.

3. How close is domestic gold (SJC) to breaking VND 143 million?
Already near that range, and with continued momentum and local demand, it’s possible the milestone is tested early next week.

4. Can central bank and ETF demand sustain this rally?
They provide strong structural support, but gold’s path will also depend on macro factors like the USD, Fed policies, and geopolitical shocks.