Investors should 'go for gold' as Fed rate cut looms, Goldman says

Investors should "go for gold" as the precious metal's stellar run isn't over, Goldman Sachs analysts said in a research note.

On Tuesday, gold futures (GC=F) hovered above $2,515 per ounce. The precious metal is off its all-time high touched last month but still up nearly 22% year to date, making it the world's second-best-performing asset behind crypto.

"Our preferred near-term long is gold. It remains our preferred hedge against geopolitical and financial risks, with added support from imminent Fed rate cuts and ongoing EM central bank buying," wrote Goldman Sachs analysts on Sunday.

The firm maintains a 2025 target of $2,700 per ounce and issued a "long gold" recommendation.

Purchases by central banks, which hit a record in the first quarter of 2024, have been one of the biggest drivers of the precious metal's rise this year. BofA analysts estimate gold has now surpassed the euro to become the world's largest reserve asset, second only to the US dollar.

Geopolitical risks such the Israel-Hamas war and Russia-Ukraine conflict, as well as signals from the Federal Reserve of a September rate cut amid signs of a slowing labor market, have also buoyed prices.

"We're seeing gold being used as an uncertainty hedge," said Tom Bruni, head of market research at Stocktwits, in a recent episode of Stocks in Translation.

Global physically backed gold ETFs have now seen inflows three months in a row as Western investors pile into gold, with North American activity outpacing Europe and Asia in July, according to the latest World Gold Council data.

In the near term, traders may be wondering if gold will succumb to a historically negative trend for assets this month. The yellow metal has declined every September since 2017, according to Bloomberg data.

Analysts expect the commodity's next catalyst will come when the Federal Reserve meets this month following a week of fresh labor data and a crucial monthly jobs report on Friday.

"Gold prices continue to hover at around $2,500/oz with focus primarily on the size of the expected upcoming Fed rate cut later this month," wrote JPMorgan analysts in a note on Tuesday.

As of early Tuesday, traders were pricing in a 31% probability of a 50 basis point cut instead of 25 basis points, per the CME FedWatch Tool.