1. The First 100 Days — A Traditional Barometer of Market Confidence

The first 100 days of a U.S. president’s term are often seen as a crucial period, reflecting investor sentiment and expectations for upcoming economic policies. Historically, markets tend to rise in anticipation of positive reforms. However, Donald Trump’s presidency defied this trend.

According to CFRA Research, from Trump’s inauguration on January 20th to April 25th, the S&P 500 fell 7.9%, marking the second-worst 100-day start for a president, behind only Richard Nixon’s second term in 1973 when the index dropped 9.9%.

2. A Discrepancy Between Initial Optimism and Harsh Reality

Initially, Trump’s election victory in November triggered a wave of market optimism. Investors expected swift implementation of tax cuts and deregulation, helping to boost the S&P 500 by 3.7% from Election Day to Inauguration Day.

However, the early days of Trump's presidency took an unexpected turn:

He prioritized aggressive protectionist trade policies over tax reforms.

Reciprocal tariffs against major partners like China and the EU sparked fears of a global trade war.

Rising inflation concerns fueled speculation of earlier-than-expected interest rate hikes by the Federal Reserve.

3. The April Market Meltdown: Investor Confidence Shattered

April marked the climax of market turbulence:

The S&P 500 nosedived 10% in just two days, briefly dipping into bear market territory for the first time since the 2008 financial crisis.

Trump's announcement of reciprocal tariffs ignited panic, although a subsequent 90-day pause for renegotiations temporarily calmed investors.

Nonetheless, the damage to market psychology had already been done. Uncertainty in Washington severely undermined confidence.

4. Historical Comparison: Lessons From Nixon to Trump

In 1973, Nixon’s price and wage control measures to combat inflation led to a prolonged recession through 1975, with stock markets losing nearly half their value.

Similarly, Trump faced a complex economic puzzle:

His attempt to rebalance global trade relationships triggered worldwide tensions.

Inconsistent and unclear policy communication disoriented investors.

The sharp S&P 500 decline during Trump’s first 100 days reflects the market’s cautious stance toward unpredictable policy-making.

5. What Lies Ahead for the Market?

Jeffrey Hirsch, editor of the Stock Trader’s Almanac, warned: "This might just be a bear market rally."
With lingering policy ambiguities on taxation, trade, and foreign affairs, many analysts predict that volatility could remain elevated throughout Trump's first year.

Even though Trump technically had two more trading sessions left before the 100-day mark, the likelihood of reversing losses seemed slim, given the persistent risks facing the market.

Conclusion

President Donald Trump’s first 100 days brought deep disappointment to Wall Street.
The stark contrast between the soaring optimism post-election and the turbulent market reality highlights a critical investment lesson: confidence is fragile — and policy uncertainty can swiftly extinguish market hopes.

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