U.S. Export Slump Deepens as Trump’s Tariffs Hit Agricultural Sector Hard

The latest supply chain data reveals that the initial drop in U.S. imports—caused by reduced orders from global manufacturing partners—has now expanded into a nationwide export slump. The U.S. agricultural sector is taking the brunt of the impact, with key products like soybeans, corn, and beef experiencing significant declines.

Trade tracking firm Vizion reports that U.S. exports to the world, particularly to China, have been steadily decreasing since January. The Port of Los Angeles saw a 17% drop, while Savannah, Georgia—America’s top port for containerized agricultural exports in 2025—fell 13%, and Norfolk, Virginia declined by 12%.

The Port of Oakland, California, also plays a crucial role as a hub for international refrigerated goods. Other major ports handling U.S. agricultural exports include Los Angeles, Long Beach, New York/New Jersey, Houston, and Seattle/Tacoma.

Why Exports Are Falling

The export decline is linked to fewer containerships arriving in the U.S., as businesses across industries cancel manufacturing orders. This trend, combined with shifting global demand and U.S. trade policy changes, has led to reduced shipments. Vizion’s data shows that U.S. imports continue to fall, with a dramatic 43% week-over-week decline in container volumes between April 21 and April 28.

“We haven’t seen anything like this since the disruptions of summer 2020,” said Kyle Henderson, CEO of Vizion. “Goods expected to arrive in the next six to eight weeks simply won’t. Rising tariffs are pushing costs higher, and small businesses are pausing orders as a result.”

Retail Inventories Under Pressure

Bank of America forecasts a sharp decline in inbound container traffic at the Port of Los Angeles in May, with U.S. container imports from Asia expected to fall 15%-20% in the coming weeks. Retailers have been urging consumers to buy early to avoid shortages.

According to Bank of America, retail inventory levels are not especially high, and recent consumer stockpiling may lead to “lean” inventories in the months ahead. Many retailers hold only one to two months’ worth of sales in stock, leaving them vulnerable to unexpected supply or demand shocks.

A Critical Time for Holiday Planning

June marks a pivotal period for securing holiday inventory. Tim Robertson, CEO of DHL Global Forwarding, advises that retailers who lock in shipping capacity early will be best positioned to meet holiday demand. “It’s about sequencing the flow of goods and using real-time data to pivot when needed,” Robertson said.

Supply Chain Workers at Risk

Capt. Kipling Louttit, executive director of the Marine Exchange of Southern California, warned that falling cargo volumes are leaving labor, trucking, and rail workers without work. Only 14 ships arrived in the latest three-day period, down from the typical 17.

Freight company Matson has already lowered its 2025 outlook, citing tariff impacts and broader economic uncertainties. CEO Matt Cox reported a 30% year-over-year drop in container volume since tariffs were enacted and noted that the outlook for the rest of the year remains uncertain.

Agricultural Exports in Crisis

The farming sector has labeled the current situation a “crisis.” The Port of Portland, Oregon, saw a staggering 51% export decline, and the Port of Tacoma, Washington, dropped 28%. In contrast, Houston and Seattle experienced smaller decreases of around 3%.

Ben Tracy, vice president of strategic business development at Vizion, summed it up: “Nearly all U.S. exports are taking a hit.”