Iran Remains "Extremely Cautious" on Success of Nuclear Talks with U.S.

1. Ongoing Diplomatic Efforts Amid Deep Caution

Iran and the United States have agreed to continue nuclear talks next week, with Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araqchi expressing “extreme caution” over the outcome of the negotiations aimed at ending a decades-long nuclear standoff.

Despite President Donald Trump’s confidence in reaching a new accord with Tehran, Araqchi emphasized on Iranian state TV that “negotiations are extremely serious and technical” and that “differences still exist, both on major issues and details.”

After a six-hour third round of indirect talks held in Muscat through Omani mediation, both sides agreed to reconvene soon, potentially in Europe, according to a senior U.S. administration official who described the discussions as “positive and productive.”

Omani Foreign Minister Badr Albusaidi confirmed that another high-level meeting is provisionally scheduled for May 3, with the venue announcement pending.

2. Core Objectives and Challenges

According to Araqchi, the talks' primary goal is to “build confidence about the peaceful nature of Iran’s nuclear program in exchange for sanctions relief.” However, expert-level discussions leading up to the main talks were described by Iranian sources as “difficult, complicated, and serious.”

Meanwhile, President Trump reiterated to Time magazine his belief in the possibility of a deal but warned that military options remained on the table should diplomacy fail.

The diplomatic atmosphere was further complicated by a tragic explosion at Iran’s Shahid Rajaee port, reported shortly after talks commenced, resulting in at least four deaths and hundreds injured.

3. Historical Context: Maximum Pressure Campaign Resumes

Trump’s administration has intensified the “maximum pressure” policy on Iran since February 2025. This follows the 2018 withdrawal from the 2015 nuclear agreement and the reimposition of heavy economic sanctions.

Since then, Iran has significantly increased its uranium enrichment to 60% purity, edging closer to the 90% level required for weapons-grade material, as confirmed by the U.N. nuclear watchdog.

U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio recently emphasized that any new deal must require Iran to cease all uranium enrichment activities and rely entirely on imported fuel for its Bushehr nuclear plant.

Iranian officials have indicated a willingness to negotiate some limits on nuclear activity in exchange for sanctions relief but firmly stated that ending enrichment or surrendering enriched uranium remains a “red line.”

4. European Mediation and Broader Security Concerns

European diplomats involved have urged U.S. negotiators to ensure that any new agreement also restricts Iran’s ability to develop nuclear-capable ballistic missiles. However, Tehran remains adamant that its missile program is non-negotiable.

An Iranian official close to the talks confirmed that disagreements over the missile program pose an even greater challenge than the nuclear file itself.

Conclusion

While both Tehran and Washington maintain a diplomatic posture, major obstacles remain unresolved. The coming weeks will be critical in determining whether a new nuclear agreement is within reach—or whether decades of distrust will continue to undermine progress.

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