Trump Administration Weighs $30 Billion Civilian Nuclear Deal for Iran

A Potential Shift in U.S. Policy Toward Iran?

The Trump administration recently explored offering economic incentives to Iran in exchange for halting its uranium enrichment program, according to three sources familiar with the matter. The proposal reportedly includes unfreezing billions of dollars in Iranian assets and allowing Iran to build a civilian nuclear program, with potential financial support of up to $30 billion from regional countries.

If enacted, this would represent a major policy reversal for Donald Trump, who famously withdrew the U.S. from the 2015 Iran nuclear deal in 2018, arguing that lifting sanctions had given Iran a “lifeline of cash” to fund its destabilizing activities.

Trump has since denied knowledge of the proposal, calling it a “ridiculous idea” and “another HOAX by the Fake News,” in a post on Truth Social.

Rising Tensions and Mixed Messages

Earlier the same day, Trump warned of dropping any potential sanctions relief after Iranian Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei declared “victory” over Israel and dismissed U.S. military actions on Iranian nuclear sites.

Trump responded on Truth Social:

“Why would the so-called ‘Supreme Leader,’ Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, say so blatantly and foolishly that he won the War with Israel, when he knows his statement is a lie?”

Despite the harsh words, Trump later said Iran still wanted to meet with him to discuss potential easing of sanctions:

“They do want to meet me, and we’ll do that quickly. We’re going to do it quickly.”

Global Impact and Economic Implications

A New Geopolitical Power Balance in the Middle East?

If the proposal materializes, it could reshape U.S.-Iran relations and shift the balance of power in the Middle East. Key U.S. allies like Israel and Saudi Arabia — who are firmly opposed to Iran's nuclear ambitions — may reassess their strategic positions and alliances.

Moreover, offering Iran civilian nuclear capabilities, even under strict conditions, might encourage other regional powers to seek similar privileges, fueling a potential nuclear race under the guise of civilian development.

How Global Markets Could React

Crude Oil Prices Could Fall
A return of Iranian oil to the global market could increase supply and pressure oil prices downward, benefiting consumers worldwide but negatively affecting oil-exporting nations like Russia, Saudi Arabia, and Venezuela.

Currency and Gold Market Volatility
Signs of de-escalation between the U.S. and Iran typically weaken demand for safe-haven assets like gold and strengthen the U.S. dollar, as market risks are perceived to decline.

Shift in Global Investment Flows
With Iran potentially rejoining global financial markets, there could be a shift in foreign direct investment (FDI), especially from China, India, and European countries interested in Iran’s oil, gas, and infrastructure sectors.

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