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Trump Heads to the Middle East: Oil, Trade, and Nuclear Ambitions Take Center Stage
Trump Heads to the Middle East: Oil, Trade, and Nuclear Ambitions Take Center Stage
12 tháng 5 2025
On May 13, U.S. President Donald Trump will embark on an official trip to the Middle East, with stops in Saudi Arabia, Qatar, and the United Arab Emirates (UAE), amid escalating geopolitical tensions in the region.
The visit carries high stakes, with key topics on the agenda including Israel-Gaza ceasefire talks, energy and trade negotiations, foreign investment, advanced semiconductor exports, and civilian nuclear cooperation.
Trade, Oil, and Strategic Alliances
Among the most anticipated developments is the possible removal of Trump-era 10% tariffs on aluminum and steel, which would benefit Gulf exporters. Though these metals contribute a small share to Gulf GDPs, lifting the tariffs would signal a positive shift in U.S.-Gulf trade ties.
Trump has long maintained close ties with Gulf Arab nations, particularly Saudi Arabia and the UAE, where his family has business ventures and planned real estate projects. These relationships may strengthen the Gulf's position in securing new trade agreements – though they’ve raised ethical questions over potential conflicts of interest, allegations the Trump family denies.
Wall Street, AI, and the Gulf’s Tech Ambitions
Trump’s trip coincides with the Saudi-U.S. Investment Forum in Riyadh on May 13, featuring top figures from Wall Street and Silicon Valley, including BlackRock CEO Larry Fink, Palantir CEO Alex Karp, and executives from Citigroup, IBM, Qualcomm, Alphabet, and Franklin Templeton. David Sacks, the White House’s AI and crypto advisor, will also attend.
The UAE and Saudi Arabia have invested heavily in AI infrastructure to become global tech hubs. At the heart of the discussion will be U.S. export rules on advanced AI chips. The Trump administration recently announced it would repeal the Biden-era “AI diffusion rule” and replace it with a simpler framework aimed at securing U.S. dominance in AI.
UAE-based AI company G42 has aligned with U.S. regulations by cutting ties with Chinese firms and partnering with Microsoft, which invested $1.5 billion in the company in 2023.
Civilian Nuclear Goals and a Shifting U.S.-Saudi Pact
Another focal point is the U.S.-Saudi nuclear cooperation, with Riyadh pushing for support to develop a civilian nuclear program. While previous U.S. conditions tied such support to Saudi normalization with Israel, that requirement may be revised during Trump’s visit, according to sources close to the matter.
U.S. Energy Secretary Chris Wright previously said both countries were on a “pathway” toward a civil nuclear agreement, though further announcements would come from Trump himself.
Israel-Gaza Ceasefire and Regional Tensions
Trump has pledged to end the war in Gaza, though his suggestion that the U.S. might take control of the territory – which he called “valuable real estate” – has drawn backlash from Arab leaders.
Washington is currently pushing for a 21-day ceasefire and partial hostage release, while Israel continues to expand its ground operations in Gaza.
Greg Branch, founder of UAE-based Branch Global Capital Advisors, told CNBC: “If there’s going to be an Arab-led response, now is the time. But it will likely unfold behind closed doors and may pose longer-term geopolitical risks rather than immediate macroeconomic shocks.”
Oil, Budget Pressure, and U.S. Financing
Trump has repeatedly urged OPEC to increase oil production to lower U.S. fuel prices. While Saudi Arabia is currently boosting output, it may be forced to reverse course if prices remain depressed, cutting into national revenues.
Saudi Arabia has committed to invest $600 billion in the U.S. during Trump’s term, but it’s also facing widening budget deficits due to low oil prices and high public spending for its Vision 2030 agenda.
“With oil prices where they are, Saudi will likely seek more financial support and investment commitments from the U.S. to advance its development goals,” said Monica Malik, Chief Economist at Abu Dhabi Commercial Bank.
Conclusion
Trump’s trip to the Middle East marks a significant moment for U.S. foreign policy and regional diplomacy, with far-reaching implications in trade, energy, technology, and nuclear strategy. In a region where every move is closely watched, the outcomes of this visit could reshape U.S.-Gulf relations and regional power dynamics for years to come.
Source: CNBC
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